This study tests the causal direction between captive supply and cash market price in the U.S. cattle procurement market. Finding the correct causality should provide useful information to the decades-long debate on packers’ anti-competitive behavior in the U.S. cattle procurement market. It should also help researchers find better econometric specifications for the cash price-captive supply relationship. Two causality tests—the Granger test and the Modified Wald test—were conducted. Overall test results indicate that captive supply causes cash market price, and it favors the price-dependent model.
Causality Between Captive Supplies and Cash Market Prices in the U.S. Cattle Procurement Market