Urbanization and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission nexus in the CEMAC countries

PurposeThis study investigates the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emission in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community from 1990 to 2019. The literature reveals that the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions is still debatable and the existing findings are inconclusive.Design/methodology/approachCarbon dioxide is the regressand; while, urbanization, gross domestic product (GDP) and financial development (FD), rule of law (ROL) and government effectiveness (GEF) are the regressors. Johansen Fisher and Kao residual co-integration tests alongside the fully modified and dynamic ordinary least squares.FindingsThe results show a significant positive relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions. The causality tests results show that carbon dioxide granger causes urbanization, GDP and FD unit directionally.Research limitations/implicationsThe countries' governments should effectively improve their legal systems to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. Urbanization laws should be implemented to limit urbanization environmental deteriorating effects on carbon dioxide emissions. This occurs as the countries practiced unregulated urbanization which increases population's environmental impacts. The study recommends sustainable green urbanization policies for environmental conservation through tree planting and horticulture. Balance development in urban and rural areas is vital to decongest the urban cities' pressure in the states. The governments should motivate the private sector with rural investments captivating policies to limit rural urban migration.Originality/valueThe findings contribute value by supporting a positive link between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in the CEMAC zone. The causality tests findings confirm the view that carbon dioxide granger causes urbanization, GDP and FD unit directionally. This value addition is essential to the governments and policy makers to mitigate urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in the CEMAC region.

Monetary Policy between Mexico, United States of America, and Canada

This article examines the evolution of the monetary policy of the economies that make up the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ), for the period 1980-2015. Based on an empirical analysis, which includes the scrutiny of stylized facts of the monetary variables of Canada, the United States and Mexico, causality tests Granger quality and error correction models ( VEC ), it is concluded that, in parallel to the trade integration process of these countries, the monetary side of NAFTA exhibits divergences and convergences that imply an asymmetric integration of the economy Mexican with the United States and, to a lesser extent, with Canada.

Conducting Causal Analysis by Means of Approximating Probabilistic Truths

The current paper develops a probabilistic theory of causation using measure-theoretical concepts and suggests practical routines for conducting causal inference. The theory is applicable to both linear and high-dimensional nonlinear models. An example is provided using random forest regressions and daily data on yield spreads. The application tests how uncertainty in short- and long-term inflation expectations interacts with spreads in the daily Bitcoin price. The results are contrasted with those obtained by standard linear Granger causality tests. It is shown that the suggested measure-theoretic approaches do not only lead to better predictive models, but also to more plausible parsimonious descriptions of possible causal flows. The paper concludes that researchers interested in causal analysis should be more aspirational in terms of developing predictive capabilities, even if the interest is in inference and not in prediction per se. The theory developed in the paper provides practitioners guidance for developing causal models using new machine learning methods that have, so far, remained relatively underutilized in this context.

The Effect of Net FDI Inflow on Economic Growth in Turkey

Capital is one of the first and foremost requisites of economic development for every country in this world. However, not every country is given abundant capital. Foreign direct investment (FDI) occurs as a good cure to solve capital-related issues. In this study, the net FDI inflow and economic growth correlation was researched in Turkey for the period of 2010:1-2018:3 by employing quarterly data as well as applying the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF); Phillips-Perron (PP); Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin (KPSS); Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (ERS) Point Optimal; Ng-Perron Unit Root Tests; and Toda-Yamamoto Causality Tests. According to the findings of the study, there is a unidirectional causality running from net FDI to economic growth in Turkey.

Government expenditure and macroeconomic stability conundrum in Zimbabwe

The objective of this paper was to explore the effect of government expenditure growth on macroeconomic stability in Zimbabwe. Public expenditure has grown over time but as per a priori expectations, other macroeconomic variables have not been forth coming. What the country has actually experienced is prolonged macroeconomic instability. The paper contributes to the body of literature in two ways, (1) by creating a macroeconomic instability index and (2) by being the first in the Zimbabwean context to explore this conundrum. To achieve the main objective of the paper, the study used a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality with data spanning 1981 to 2019. The study did not find a statistically significant relationship between government expenditure and macroeconomic stability as argued mostly by the Keynesians. However, according to a priori expectations, the relationship turned out to be rightly negative. To buttress the Cointegrated-VECM results, granger causality tests were also conducted where no causality was found from government spending to macroeconomic stability, and vice versa (causality running from instability to government spending). This paper recommends that, Zimbabwe’s policy makers may need to consider proactive government spending or policies, since that helps the economy to successfully avoid possible risks such as macroeconomic instability. When policies are proactive rather than reactive, that helps by seizing untapped opportunities, and the economy justly avoids consequences of reactive governance.

Economic Globalization, Entrepreneurship, and Inclusive Growth in Africa

An increasing number of studies are examining the relationship between entrepreneurship and growth. This relationship is controversial, especially for developing countries. Recent improvements in economic growth have led to a focus on growth inclusiveness, which spreads economic opportunities throughout a society. However, studies that focus on the role of entrepreneurship in inclusive growth remain scarce. To fill that gap, this study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic globalization, entrepreneurship, and inclusive growth in 21 African countries using panel econometrics to examine data covering 2006 to 2018. The results reveal that the impact of economic globalization and entrepreneurship on inclusive growth is positive and significant. We find that economic globalization enhances entrepreneurial development, and causality tests show that economic globalization drives inclusive growth. We also find a unidirectional causality from entrepreneurship to inclusive growth. Finally, we observe no direction of causality between economic globalization and entrepreneurship but observe a bidirectional causality between governance and entrepreneurship. We discuss the implications of these results.

Does the Number of Hajj Pilgrims Boost Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia?

This paper uses the multivariate Johansen cointegration approach and Granger causality tests to study the causal relationship between the number of pilgrims and the non-oil GDP growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1980–2016 by integrating the real effective exchange rate index as an additional variable. Our findings indicate that there is only one long-run relationship between the three variables when the non-oil GDP growth is the dependent variable. There is a unidirectional long-run causality from the number of pilgrims to non-oil GDP growth. Besides, we find no short-run causal relationships between the three variables. Therefore, an important policy implication resulting from this study is that pilgrims can be a led growth factor to economic growth in Saudi Arabia in the long run. The pilgrimage event can, therefore, be an excellent opportunity for Saudi Arabia to boost its economic activity as stated by its 2030 vision.

Analysis of the Propagation Effects of Remittances on the Vulnerability of External Trade of the Republic of Moldova

In the Republic of Moldova remittances have become a much-discussed subject, the country ranking among the economies with the highest share of remittances in terms of GDP. What is more, remittances, unlike FDI, external trade and other sources of income, seem to have a significant impact on economic growth. Republic of Moldova is a small open economy vulnerable to external shocks. We will examine the effect of remittances on the balance of trade by creating an econometric model. Am attempt has also been made to capture the positive and negative spillovers that migrants’ remittances have on a country’s socio-economic development. Within the research a variety of analytical tools are employed including Granger causality tests, unit root tests, coupled with a structural vector auto regression (SVAR), impulse response function (IRF) analyses and variance decomposition. We find that net trade and remittances are closely associated and follow an almost identical path. Remittances have strong effect on the growth of negative net trade of the Republic of Moldova.