Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites

The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization represents a significant puzzle. We argue that politicians can maintain systematic misperceptions of constituency opinion that may contribute to breakdowns in dyadic representation. We demonstrate this argument with original surveys of 3,765 politicians’ perceptions of constituency opinion on nine issues. In 2012 and 2014, state legislative politicians from both parties dramatically overestimated their constituents’ support for conservative policies on these issues, a pattern consistent across methods, districts, and states. Republicans drive much of this overestimation. Exploiting responses from politicians in the same district, we confirm these partisan differences within individual districts. Further evidence suggests that this overestimation may arise due to biases in who contacts politicians, as in recent years Republican citizens have been especially likely to contact legislators, especially fellow Republicans. Our findings suggest that a novel force can operate in elections and in legislatures: Politicians can systematically misperceive what their constituents want.

Notes from the Editor

The current issue of the Journal of Sociocybernetics is the first edition after its transformation into an open-access online journal. The reorganisation we have made during the last year enables electronic support of online-submission of articles and online management of the review and publishing process. We thank very much the University of Zaragoza for the possibility of hosting our Journal at the university's server and its generous technical and organisational assistance. As of now potential authors will be guided through the whole process of submitting an article, information of current peer-to-peer review status, copysediting, galley proofing and publication. For submitting articles authors need to register with the journal prior to submitting. People who want to register have the option to register as a reader or as an author. Every reader or author can register by themselves using the journal's website. After clicking the register item they will be guided through the registration process. After registration they will be able to login by username and password and then authors may submit their papers. The system will immediately confirm the submission and will automatically trigger the review process. Authors will get an email with a URL that will enable them to track its progress through the editorial process once they are logged in. We recommend that you review the "About the Journal” page for the journal's policies, as well as the "Author Guidelines". The reorganisation needed a longer time than was first thought. I would like to beg your pardon for the tardiness of publication and thank both authors and readers for your patience. With a regrettable delay we are now publishing in close secsession the volumes for 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2011 and 2012 will be published as a double issue. The current edition comprises articels with theoretical and epistemological aspects of sociocybernetics. In his article “The Spectral Sign: A Cybernetic Perspective on Digital Conversations” Marco Tolodo Bastos discusses the idea of a spectral sign, which is defined as the outcome of an operation that corrupts the semiotic structure of a sign, replacing instead of adding units of meaning. From a linguistic point of view, the spectral sign relies on the effects of communication technologies that challenge the dyadic representation of a sign. Instead of relating to another sign to perform a paired circle, spectral sign connects a diversity of circles that are not immediately accessible in a semiotic context. In his article “Les Deux Angleterres et le Continent Anglophone Sociology as the Guardian of Old European Semantics” Steffen Roth questions the reasons for the marginality of Luhmann's Theory of Social Systems in Anglophone sociology. He comes to the conclusion that, while Europe, or ‘the continent’, is still perceived as old compared with the Anglophone new world(s), it is still Anglophone sociology that preserves ‘Old European’ semantics. Sociology in continental ‘Old Europe’, however, seems to have a chance of slowly being acquainted with a new, post-enlightenment mindset focused on semantics and communication rather than on humans and action. In this edition we start with a series of three articles by Roberto Gustavo Mancilla which gives a general introduction to Sociocybernetics. Part 1 (in this issue) discusses the differentiation between first and second order cybernetics, the concept of observer and the concept of society as a complex adaptive system. The following parts will adress the aspects of power, law and justice, and epistemological questions on constructivism. These parts will be published in the next issues of the Journal of Socio­cyber­netics. Michael Paetau (Editor)