Time Series Clustering for Robust Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection: Comparison of Several Dissimilarity Measures

This paper shows how to create a robust portfolio selection with time series clustering by using some dissimilarity measure. Based on such dissimilarity measures, stocks are initially sorted into multiple clusters using the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) time series clustering approach. Following clustering, a portfolio is constructed by selecting one stock from each cluster. Stocks having the greatest Sharpe ratio are selected from each cluster. The optimum portfolio is then constructed using the robust Fast Minimum Covariance Determinant (FMCD) and robust S MV portfolio model. When there are a big number of stocks accessible for the portfolio formation process, we can use this approach to quickly generate the optimum portfolio. This approach is also resistant to the presence of any outliers in the data. The Sharpe ratio was used to evaluate the performance of the portfolios that were created. The daily closing price of stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, which are included in the LQ-45 indexed from August 2017 to July 2018, was utilized as a case study. Empirical study revealed that portfolios constructed using PAM time series clustering with autocorrelation dissimilarity and a robust FMCD MV portfolio model outperformed portfolios created using other approaches.

Bi-level optimization approach for robust mean-variance problems

Portfolio Optimization is based on the efficient allocation of several assets, which can get heavily affected by the uncertainty in input parameters. So we must look for such solutions which can give us steady results in uncertain conditions too. Recently, the uncertainty based optimization problems are being dealt with robust optimization approach. With this development, the interest of researchers has been shifted toward the robust portfolio optimization. In this paper, we study the robust counterparts of the uncertain mean-variance problems under box and ellipsoidal uncertainties. We convert those uncertain problems into bi-level optimization models and then derive their robust counterparts. We also solve a problem using this methodology and compared the optimal results of box and ellipsoidal uncertainty models with the nominal model.

ROBUST PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH CLUSTERING BASED ON BUSINESS SECTOR OF STOCKS

In recent years there have been numerous studies on portfolio selection using cluster analysis in conjunction with Markowitz model which used mean vectors and covariance matrix that are estimated from a highly volatile data. This study presents a more robust way of portfolio selection where stocks are grouped into clusters based on business sector of stocks. A representative from each cluster is selected from each cluster using Sharpe ratio to construct a portfolio and then optimized using robust FCMD and S-estimation. Calculation Sharpe ratio showed that this method works efficiently on large number of data while also robust against outlier in comparison to k-mean clustering. Implementation of this method on stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, which included in the LQ-45 indexed for the period of August 2017 to July 2018 showed that portfolio performance obtained using clustering base on business sector of stocks combine with robust FMCD estimation is outperformed the other possible combination of the methods.