Bifurcation Forecasting for Large Dimensional Oscillatory Systems: Forecasting Flutter Using Gust Responses

Forecasting bifurcations is a significant challenge and an important need in several applications. Most of the existing forecasting approaches focus on bifurcations in nonoscillating systems. However, subcritical and supercritical flutter (Hopf) bifurcations are very common in a variety of systems, especially fluid–structural systems. This paper presents a unique approach to forecast (nonlinear) flutter based on observations of the system only in the prebifurcation regime. The proposed method is based on exploiting the phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) in oscillating systems near certain bifurcations. Techniques are introduced to enhance the prediction accuracy for cases of low-frequency oscillations and large-dimensional dynamical systems. The method is applied to an aeroelastic system responding to gust loads. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the method in predicting the postbifurcation regime accurately in both supercritical and subcritical cases.