Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

Over the past 20 years, analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (36Cl) has emerged as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed that 36Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the timings of past ground displacements during earthquakes, which in turn can be used to improve existing seismic hazard assessment. This approach requires accurate simulations of 36Cl accumulation for a set of fault-scarp rock samples, which are progressively exhumed during earthquakes, in order to infer displacement histories from 36Cl measurements. While the physical models underlying such simulations have continuously been improved, the inverse problem of recovering displacement histories from 36Cl measurements is still mostly solved on an ad hoc basis. The current work resolves this situation by providing a MATLAB implementation of a fast, automatic, and flexible Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the inverse problem, and provides a validation of the 36Cl approach to inference of earthquakes from the demise of the Last Glacial Maximum until present. To demonstrate its performance, we apply our algorithm to a synthetic case to verify identifiability, and to the Fiamignano and Frattura faults in the Italian Apennines in order to infer their earthquake displacement histories and to provide seismic hazard assessments. The results suggest high variability in slip rates for both faults, and large displacements on the Fiamignano fault at times when the Colosseum and other ancient buildings in Rome were damaged.

Prospecting Glacial Ages and Paleoclimatic Reconstructions Northeastward of Nevado Coropuna (16° S, 73° W, 6377 m), Arid Tropical Andes

This work investigates the timing, paleoclimatic framework and inter-hemispheric teleconnections inferred from the glaciers last maximum extension and the deglaciation onset in the Arid Tropical Andes. A study area was selected to the northeastward of the Nevado Coropuna, the volcano currently covered by the largest tropical glacier on Earth. The current glacier extent, the moraines deposited in the past and paleoglaciers at their maximum extension have been mapped. The present and past Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELA and paleoELA) have been reconstructed and the chlorine-36 ages have been calculated, for preliminary absolute dating of glacial and volcanic processes. The paleoELA depression, the thermometers installed in the study area and the accumulation data previously published allowed development of paleotemperature and paleoprecipitation models. The Coropuna glaciers were in maximum extension (or glacial standstill) ~20–12 ka ago (and maybe earlier). This last maximum extension was contemporary to the Heinrich 2–1 and Younger Dryas events and the Tauca and Coipasa paleolake transgressions on Bolivian Altiplano. The maximum paleoELA depression (991 m) shows a colder (−6.4 °C) and moister climate with precipitation ×1.2–×2.8 higher than the present. The deglaciation onset in the Arid Tropical Andes was 15–11 ka ago, earlier in the most southern, arid, and low mountains and later in the northernmost, less arid, and higher mountains.

Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

Over the past twenty years, analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (36Cl) has emerged as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed that 36Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the timings of past ground displacements during earthquakes, which in turn can be used to improve existing seismic hazard assessment. This approach requires accurate simulations of 36Cl accumulation for a set of fault-scarp rock samples, which are progressively exhumed during earthquakes, in order to infer displacement histories from 36Cl measurements. While the physical models underlying such simulations have continuously been improved, the inverse problem of recovering displacement histories from 36Cl measurements is still mostly solved on an ad-hoc basis. The current work resolves this situation by providing a MATLAB implementation of a fast, automatic, and flexible Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the inverse problem, and provides a validation of the 36Cl approach to inference of earthquakes from the demise of the Last Glacial Maximum until present. To demonstrate its performance, we apply our algorithm to a synthetic case to verify identifiability, and to the Fiamignano and Frattura faults in the Italian Apennines in order to infer their earthquake displacement histories and to provide seismic hazard assessments. The results suggest high variability in slip rates for both faults, and large displacements on the Fiamignano fault at times when the Colosseum and other ancient buildings in Rome were damaged.