Friction and slip measured at the bed of an Antarctic ice stream

The slip of glaciers over the underlying bed is the dominant mechanism governing the migration of ice from land into the oceans, contributing to sea-level rise. Yet glacier slip remains poorly understood or constrained by observations. Here we observe both frictional shear-stress and slip at the bed of an ice stream, using 100,000 repetitive stick-slip icequakes from Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica. Basal shear-stresses and slip-rates vary from 10^4 to 10^7 Pa and 0.2 to 1.5 m day^(-1), respectively. Friction and slip vary temporally over the order of hours and spatially over 10s of meters, caused by corresponding variations in ice-bed interface material and effective-normal-stress. Our findings also suggest that the bed is substantially more complex than currently assumed in ice stream models and that basal effective-normal-stresses may be significantly higher than previously thought. The observations also provide previously unresolved constraint of the basal boundary conditions of ice dynamics models. This is critical for constraining the primary contribution of ice mass loss in Antarctica, and hence the endeavour to reduce uncertainty in sea-level rise projections.

Supplemental Material: Non-steady-state slip rates emerge along evolving restraining bends under constant loading

Expanded methodology and repeated experiment faulting history.<br>

Supplemental Material: Non-steady-state slip rates emerge along evolving restraining bends under constant loading

Expanded methodology and repeated experiment faulting history.<br>

Tectonic controls on Quaternary landscape evolution in the Ventura basin, southern California, USA, quantified using cosmogenic isotopes and topographic analyses

The quantification of rates for the competing forces of tectonic uplift and erosion has important implications for understanding topographic evolution. Here, we quantify the complex interplay between tectonic uplift, topographic development, and erosion recorded in the hanging walls of several active reverse faults in the Ventura basin, southern California, USA. We use cosmogenic 26Al/10Be isochron burial dating and 10Be surface exposure dating to construct a basin-wide geochronology, which includes burial dating of the Saugus Formation: an important, but poorly dated, regional Quaternary strain marker. Our ages for the top of the exposed Saugus Formation range from 0.36 +0.18/−0.22 Ma to 1.06 +0.23/−0.26 Ma, and our burial ages near the base of shallow marine deposits, which underlie the Saugus Formation, increase eastward from 0.60 +0.05/−0.06 Ma to 3.30 +0.30/−0.41 Ma. Our geochronology is used to calculate rapid long-term reverse fault slip rates of 8.6−12.6 mm yr−1 since ca. 1.0 Ma for the San Cayetano fault and 1.3−3.0 mm yr−1 since ca. 1.0 Ma for the Oak Ridge fault, which are both broadly consistent with contemporary reverse slip rates derived from mechanical models driven by global positioning system (GPS) data. We also calculate terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN)-derived, catchment-averaged erosion rates that range from 0.05−1.14 mm yr−1 and discuss the applicability of TCN-derived, catchment-averaged erosion rates in rapidly uplifting, landslide-prone landscapes. We compare patterns in erosion rates and tectonic rates to fluvial response times and geomorphic landscape parameters to show that in young, rapidly uplifting mountain belts, catchments may attain a quasi-steady-state on timescales of &lt;105 years even if catchment-averaged erosion rates are still adjusting to tectonic forcing.

Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru

Probabilistic earthquake forecasts estimate the likelihood of future earthquakes within a specified time-space-magnitude window and are important because they inform planning of hazard mitigation activities on different timescales. The spatial component of such forecasts, expressed as seismicity models, generally rely upon some combination of past event locations and underlying factors which might affect spatial intensity, such as strain rate, fault location and slip rate or past seismicity. For the first time, we extend previously reported spatial seismicity models, generated using the open source inlabru package, to time-independent earthquake forecasts using California as a case study. The inlabru approach allows the rapid evaluation of point process models which integrate different spatial datasets. We explore how well various candidate forecasts perform compared to observed activity over three contiguous five year time periods using the same training window for the seismicity data. In each case we compare models constructed from both full and declustered earthquake catalogues. In doing this, we compare the use of synthetic catalogue forecasts to the more widely-used grid-based approach of previous forecast testing experiments. The simulated-catalogue approach uses the full model posteriors to create Bayesian earthquake forecasts. We show that simulated-catalogue based forecasts perform better than the grid-based equivalents due to (a) their ability to capture more uncertainty in the model components and (b) the associated relaxation of the Poisson assumption in testing. We demonstrate that the inlabru models perform well overall over various time periods, and hence that independent data such as fault slip rates can improve forecasting power on the time scales examined. Together, these findings represent a significant improvement in earthquake forecasting is possible, though this has yet to be tested and proven in true prospective mode.

Sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on bimaterial faults show dominant rupture asymmetry and potential for elevated seismic hazard

We perform numerical simulations of sequences of earthquake and aseismic slip on planar rate and state faults separating dissimilar material within the 2-D plane strain approximation. We resolve all stages of the earthquake cycle from aseismic slip to fast ruptures while incorporating full inertia effects during seismic event propagation. We show that bimaterial coupling results in favorable nucleation site and subsequent asymmetric rupture propagation. We demonstrate that increasing the material contrast enhances this asymmetry leading to higher slip rates and normal stress drops in the preferred rupture propagation direction. The normal stress drop, induced by the bimaterial effect, leads to strong dynamic weakening of the fault and may destabilize the creeping region on a heterogeneous rate and state fault, resulting in extended rupture propagation. Such rupture penetration into creeping patches may lead to more frequent opening of earthquake gates, causing increased seismic hazard. Furthermore, bimaterial coupling may lead to irregular seismicity pattern in terms of event length, peak slip rates,and hypocenter location, depending on the properties of the creeping patches bordering the seismogenically active part of the fault . Our results highlight robust characteristics of bimaterial interfaces that persist over long sequence of events and suggest the need for further exploration of the role of material contrast in earthquake physics and models of seismic hazard.

Complex Slip Distribution of the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, China, Earthquake: An Event Occurring on the Slowly Slipping Fault

The 21 May 2021 Maduo earthquake occurred on the Kunlun Mountain Pass–Jiangcuo fault (KMPJF), a seismogenic fault with no documented large earthquakes. To probe its kinematics, we first estimate the slip rates of the KMPJF and Tuosuo Lake segment (TLS, ∼75 km north of the KMPJF) of the East Kunlun fault (EKLF) based on the secular Global Positioning System (GPS) data using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our model reveals that the slip rates of the KMPJF and TLS are 1.7 ± 0.8 and 7.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. Then, we invert high-resolution GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations to decipher the fault geometry and detailed coseismic slip distribution associated with the Maduo earthquake. The geometry of the KMPFJ significantly varies along strike, composed of five fault subsegments. The most slip is accommodated by two steeply dipping fault segments, with the patch of large sinistral slip concentrated in the shallow depth on a simple straight structure. The released seismic moment is ∼1.5×1020 N·m, equivalent to an Mw 7.39 event, with a peak slip of ∼9.3 m. Combining the average coseismic slip and slip rate of the main fault, an earthquake recurrence period of ∼1250−400+1120 yr is estimated. The Maduo earthquake reminds us to reevaluate the potential of seismic gaps where slip rates are low. Based on our calculated Coulomb failure stress, the Maduo earthquake imposes positive stress on the Maqin–Maqu segment of the EKLF, a long-recognized seismic gap, implying that it may accelerate the occurrence of the next major event in this region.

Crustal Deformation of the Kendeng Fault Branches Area from GNSS and InSAR Data in Surabaya City, Indonesia

Slip rates on active faults derived from the interseismic velocity field are critical to understanding seismic hazards in metropolitan cities. This study integrated the data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to evaluate the interseismic velocities in the second-largest city in Indonesia, Surabaya, where branches of the Kendeng fault (the Surabaya and the Waru faults) pass through. Data from 16 campaign-mode GNSS stations collected between 2017 and 2020 from previous research are reprocessed to estimate the velocity field. Horizontal velocities under the ITRF frame range between -23.8 mm/yr and 47.9 mm/yr toward the southeast. Vertical velocities generally range between -1.3 mm/yr and -112.2 mm/yr. Sentinel-1A SAR data of both ascending and descending tracks acquired between November 2014 and July 2020 were used to generate the interferograms with the InSAR Scientific Computing Environment (ISCE) software. Furthermore, cumulative displacement time series were constructed using the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) technique within the Generic InSAR Analysis Toolbox (GIAnT). This study also carried out the detection of outlier SAR epochs to improve the precision of Line-of-sight (LOS) velocity estimates. The LOS velocities range from -14.8 to 10.8 mm/yr in the ascending track and from -12.7 to 9.5 mm/yr in the descending track. These results will facilitate the detection of coupling behaviors on the Kendeng fault branches, which can improve our understanding of seismic risks in the Surabaya area.

Experimental research on cage motion with different pocket shapes in angular contact ball bearing

The cage motion with different pocket shapes, such as spherical, square, and cylindrical, in an angular contact ball bearing under different operating conditions are studied experimentally. A test rig with two laser displacement sensors is used to obtain the displacements of the cage in five freedom degrees. The results reveal that these three type cage shapes have different trends of the centroid trajectory versus rotating speed or radial load. The whirling radius is equal to half of the pocket clearance for the spherical pocket, and half of the guiding clearance for both square and cylindrical pocket. The slip rates of all cages decrease with increasing radial load, and increase with rotating speed. Both inclination angel and slip rate of the spherical, cylindrical and square pocket decrease in turn.