Modeling Style Rotation: Switching and Re-switching

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics and statistics of style rotation based on the Barberis–Shleifer model of style switching. Investors in stocks regard the forecasting of style-relative performance, especially style rotation, as highly desirable but difficult to achieve in practice. Whilst we do not claim to be able to do this in an empirical sense, we do provide a theoretical framework for addressing these issues. We develop some new results from the Barberis–Shleifer model which allows us to understand some of the time series properties of styles’ relative performance and determine the statistical properties of the time until a switch between styles. In conclusion, we discuss potential applications of our findings to empirical data.

Application Of Tactical Style Allocation For Global Equity Portfolios

Our earlier study suggests that there exists specific timing for the two prominent investment styles, value and momentum. We extend our prior research to test and evaluate a tactical style allocation (TSA) model based on the weighted least squares (WLS) technique for global equities over the out-of-sample period from 1994 through 2008. Two TSA style-based portfolios are constructed in this research, namely, a portfolio with the risk-free proxy (cash component), the global momentum index and the global value index as its constituents, and a portfolio that is comprised of only the global momentum index and the global value index. The optimized portfolios based on the TSA model outperform the MSCI World Index, the global value index and the global momentum index on a risk-adjusted basis over the examination period. The cash component of the style-based portfolio appears to provide necessary protection during financial market crises. The results of our study support the use of the proposed TSA model to perform active style rotation between value stocks and momentum stocks for global equity portfolios.