Assessment of Risk and Uncertainty Factors Inherent in Nigerian Highway Project Using Analytical Hierarchical Process

The study presents a framework through which risk and uncertainties in Nigeria highway projects can be appraised using the analytical hierarchical process model. Pairwise comparison matrix was performed on eleven (11) risk and uncertainty factors that affect highway project performance through a questionnaire survey conducted among two hundred and four (204) respondents, which involved various stakeholders in the highway construction industry using Saaty’s AHP rating scale. The relative weights (significance/impact level) of each of the highway risk factors were estimated during the AHP model development. The results in descending order of risk factors priorities are Standard & Regulations (S&R), Construction (C), Project Staff (PS), Project Sponsor (PSp), Design (D), Project Finance (PF), Economic (E), Equipment (EQ), Environmental & Geotechnical (En&G), Site Location (SL) and Subcontractor (S) with impact levels of 16.6%, 14.2%, 13.9%, 13%, 12.7%, 12.2%, 10.8%, 9.8%, 6.2%, 4.2%, and 3.8% respectively. The model was validated using the statistical consistency test, with the model showing a consistency ratio equal to 0.1. The model was then applied to five (5) highway construction projects which had been constructed to predict the ones with the most and least risks. The result was in tandem with that which was given by the project managers from experiences on the project. This study showed that the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) decision support model can effectively be used for risk assessment and prioritization of highway construction projects for efficient resource utilization in Nigeria.

Eco-Friendly Tourism Decision Making during COVID-19—Sailing Tourism Example

In 2020, tourism was highly affected by COVID-19 and its restrictions, such as tourist traffic. Decisions related to trips were made in a state of high risk and uncertainty. This article’s main aim is to present the results of research on decision making by people practising sailing tourism during COVID-19. The survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2021 on 580 sailors from Poland, Germany, Croatia, Italy, France, and Turkey. This is interesting because of the specificity of this form of nautical tourism, which is characterised by high flexibility in the planning and implementation of the cruise. Sailing tourism is also environmentally friendly due to the type of propulsion used and the low noise levels generated. Research has shown that country-specific travel restrictions impact sailing tourism and cruise decisions. The obtained results are important for developing sailing tourism and may contribute to rationalising decisions taken during crises.

The Necropolice Economy: Mapping Biopolitical Priorities and Human Expendability in the Time of COVID-19

Necropolitics centers on the dark side of biopolitics, but if we are to take seriously Jacques Ranciere’s reassignment of ‘politics’ and ‘police,’ then what is revealed by necropolitical analysis is not simply the capacity to ‘make and let die’, but also the policing of a contingent order sustained by necropolitics. I describe this process as the necropolice-economy, and in this paper demonstrate its contours with reference to the COVID-19 pandemic which, I argue, has revealed the expendability of particular populations under conditions of risk and uncertainty. My analysis proceeds in three parts. First, I present the thesis of necropolice economy, arguing that the capitalist system has historically produced not simply a political economy, but a policed economy that induces a necropolitics of dispensability for unproductive or replaceable populations. Second, I develop this thesis by examining the relegation of society in relation to the economy amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Third, I argue that the inability of states to be decisive in the pandemic reveals that the sovereign prerogative to decide on the exception is constrained by capitalist forces. This suggests that the world market is itself a sovereign force, though it is one that remains ever dependent on state violence. To conclude, I ask whether we can channel the trauma of death made visible into processes of memorialization that might catalyze revolutionary action, rather than accelerating the evolution of our necropolice economy into its next capitalist guise—I ask, provocatively, whether an emancipatory necropolitics might yet result from the contemporary moment.

ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN A CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

This article presents the analysis of uncertainty and effectiveness in cost to construction project. Theoretical part describes various definitions of uncertainty, risk both with there sources as calculation bias, information ambiguity and data inaccuracy in construction projects. Main analysis is connected with the project's appraisal phase and its stages were the detailed information is the crucial factor for correct decision- making procedures under uncertainty and risk. Consequently this article is presenting various types risk what are undistinguishable from uncertainty circumstances in construction. After the description of risk and uncertainty types list of solutions were prepared. Application of the suggested risk and uncertainty extenuating techniques in practice was shown as analysis of precision and bias dependence with available information at different stages of appraisal phase.It is emphasized on uncertainty and risk management problem in the construction's decision- making. Recently methods based on the utility theory, game theory, statistical distribution and probability, were improved and adjusted due to decision-making needs in construction. That is why the model with implemented multiple-criteria approaches is suggested both as a tool for dealing with the uncertainty and risk problems and to meet the needs of project managers in appraisal phase.

Can Crop Insurance Encourage Farmers to Adopt Environmentally Friendly Agricultural Technology—The Evidence from Shandong Province in China

It is critical to encourage farmers to adopt agriculture technology that is beneficial to the environment in the context of the ongoing emphasis on the ecological growth of agriculture, yet risk and uncertainty diminish the incentive to adopt these technologies. This research examines whether crop insurance might affect and increase willingness to adopt Environmentally Friendly Agricultural Technology (EFAT) from a psychological perspective, utilizing data from 219 questionnaires in Shandong Province. The findings suggest that crop insurance can boost readiness to embrace technology in three ways: motivation, ability, and opportunity; however, the positive effect of motivation on farmers diminishes as capacity increases. Insurance companies must offer products that contain the risk of adopting EFAT as an insurance obligation as soon as feasible to successfully boost willingness to use technologies and collaborate with agricultural technology departments to provide farmers with training as well as disaster avoidance services.

After the fact(s): Communicating scientific complexity, risk, and uncertainty in Aotearoa

<p>This thesis draws on social constructivist theories of scientific knowledge to analyse the public engagement practices of a cohort of scientist-communicators in Aotearoa as they represent scientific complexity, risk, and uncertainty in public. Through semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis, this thesis demonstrates that participants think defensively about the publics they communicate to, drawing boundaries between science and publics that minimise exposure of the elements of scientific knowledge they perceive might undermine scientific authority. Such boundary-work often demarcates public engagement from scientific knowledge production, constructing public engagement as a subjective process applied to scientific knowledge after the fact. These science-communicators also work to overcome these very same boundaries by making science more accessible and democratic. Such tensions suggest that participants not only socially construct science, but also contribute to the social construction of public engagement with science as they work to transform systemic and cultural barriers acting to entrench science as an inaccessible, exclusive, and unilateral arbiter of knowledge. In doing so, participants found that presenting a more accurate, complex picture of science—with all its uncertainties and failures—had not undermined public confidence in science. Instead, complexity, risk and uncertainty could become transparent elements of scientific knowledge production, thereby open to public scrutiny and definition. Participants’ representations of complexity, risk, and uncertainty were influenced by accessible, local publications, and economic and institutional conditions, but rarely by established public engagement scholarship.</p>

After the fact(s): Communicating scientific complexity, risk, and uncertainty in Aotearoa

<p>This thesis draws on social constructivist theories of scientific knowledge to analyse the public engagement practices of a cohort of scientist-communicators in Aotearoa as they represent scientific complexity, risk, and uncertainty in public. Through semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis, this thesis demonstrates that participants think defensively about the publics they communicate to, drawing boundaries between science and publics that minimise exposure of the elements of scientific knowledge they perceive might undermine scientific authority. Such boundary-work often demarcates public engagement from scientific knowledge production, constructing public engagement as a subjective process applied to scientific knowledge after the fact. These science-communicators also work to overcome these very same boundaries by making science more accessible and democratic. Such tensions suggest that participants not only socially construct science, but also contribute to the social construction of public engagement with science as they work to transform systemic and cultural barriers acting to entrench science as an inaccessible, exclusive, and unilateral arbiter of knowledge. In doing so, participants found that presenting a more accurate, complex picture of science—with all its uncertainties and failures—had not undermined public confidence in science. Instead, complexity, risk and uncertainty could become transparent elements of scientific knowledge production, thereby open to public scrutiny and definition. Participants’ representations of complexity, risk, and uncertainty were influenced by accessible, local publications, and economic and institutional conditions, but rarely by established public engagement scholarship.</p>

“It’s Pure Chaos Every Day”: COVID-19 and the work of Canadian federal institutional parole officers

As the Canadian federal correctional system grappled with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, institutional parole officers, who play a central role in prisoners’ case management team, remained essential service providers. Working in uncertain circumstances, these correctional workers navigated new and rapidly changing protocols and risks, while attempting to continue to provide support to those on their caseloads. Based on semi-structured interviews with 96 institutional parole officers, conducted after Canada’s “first wave” of COVID-19 infections, we analyze three ways in which their work was impacted by the pandemic: shifting workloads, routines, and responsibilities; increased workloads due to decarceration (i.e., efforts to reduce the number of incarcerated individuals); and the navigation of new forms of risk and uncertainty. This study advances the understanding of stress and risk in probation and parole work and presents recommendations to ameliorate the occupational stresses experienced by correctional workers during and beyond COVID-19.

Risk and Uncertainty Revisited: A Clarification of Theory and Application

In addition to the obvious public confusion and lack of distinction between the terms, risk and uncertainty and other related concepts, the interchangeable use seems to seep into the academic and professional research. According to a 2018 study by De Groot and Thurik, it was reported that 88.3% of articles in this topic, across the related fields, did not adhere to the distinction between risk and uncertainty, rendering all the undesirable theoretical and empirical consequences. This paper is intended to revisit the concepts of risk and uncertainty, not only clarifying the meaning and use of the terms, but also shedding a light on differentiating all the related concepts. The focus is on risk, being the core element directly related to the success and failure of all financial and managerial decision making. The approach is not only conceptual, but also supported by mathematical and numerical applications.