How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization

In this paper, we use three basic univariate techniques, namely, BBQ algorithm, time series filtering, and Markov-switching models, to date and characterize Lithuanian business cycles from 1995 to 2010. We find that economic growth in Lithuania was relatively balanced after the Russian Crisis until late 2006. After that, the economy experienced an extreme, although relatively brief, period of an overheated economic climate before plunging into a very deep recession at the end of 2008. Using the BBQ algorithm, we provide some simple comparisons of the two recessions as well as international data obtained in other studies. Our Markov-switching regression exercise, confirming the findings above, additionally indicates that recessionary periods may have shocks with non-finite variances and economically significant permanent effects on output.

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Markov-Switching Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables II: A Two-Step MLE Procedure with Standard-Error Correction

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.516683 ◽

2004 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Chang-Jin Kim

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Standard Error ◽

Markov Switching ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Markov Switching Models ◽

Switching Models

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A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance

Mathematics ◽

10.3390/math9091030 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. 1030

Author(s):

Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres ◽

Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa ◽

José Álvarez-García

Keyword(s):

Markov Switching ◽

Stock Index ◽

Portfolio Performance ◽

Trading Costs ◽

Weighting Method ◽

Treasury Bills ◽

Markov Switching Models ◽

Switching Models ◽

Asset Portfolio ◽

Stock Portfolio

In the present paper, we test the benefit of using Markov-Switching models and volatility futures diversification in a Euro-based stock portfolio. With weekly data of the Eurostoxx 50 (ESTOXX50) stock index, we forecasted the smoothed regime-specific probabilities at T + 1 and used them as the weighting method of a diversified portfolio in ESTOXX50 and ESTOSS50 volatility index (VSTOXX) futures. With the estimated smoothed probabilities from 9 July 2009 to 29 September 2020, we simulated the performance of three theoretical investors who paid different trading costs and invested in ESTOXX50 during calm periods (low volatility regime) or VSTOXX futures and the three-month German treasury bills in distressed or highly distressed periods (high and extreme volatility regimes). Our results suggest that diversification benefits hold in the short-term, but if a given investor manages a two-asset portfolio with ESTOXX50 and our simulated portfolios, the stock portfolio’s performance is enhanced significantly, in the long term, with the presence of trading costs. These results are of use to practitioners for algorithmic and active trading applications in ESTOXX50 ETFs and VSTOXX futures.

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Modeling and forecasting of rainfall reoccurrence changes using Markov Switching in Iran

SN Applied Sciences ◽

10.1007/s42452-021-04728-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (8) ◽

Author(s):

Majid Javari

Keyword(s):

Environmental Planning ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Markov Switching ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

First Order ◽

Markov Switching Models ◽

Markov Transition Matrix ◽

Switching Models ◽

Markov Transition ◽

Modeling And Forecasting

AbstractThis paper represents the recurrence (reoccurrence) changes in the rainfall series using Markov Switching models (MSM). The switching employs a dynamic pattern that allows a linear model to be combined with nonlinearity models a discrete structure. The result is the Markov Switching models (MSM) reoccurrence predicting technique. Markov Switching models (MSM) were employed to analyze rainfall reoccurrence with spatiotemporal regime probabilities. In this study, Markov Switching models (MSM) were used based on the simple exogenous probability frame by identifying a first-order Markov process for the regime probabilities. The Markov transition matrix and regime probabilities were used to analyze the rainfall reoccurrence in 167 synoptic and climatology stations. The analysis results show a low distribution from 0.0 to 0.2 (0–20%) per day spatially from selecting stations, probability mean of daily rainfall recurrence is 0.84, and a different distribution based on the second regime was found to be more remarkable to the rainfall variability. The rainfall reoccurrence in daily rainfall was estimated with relatively low variability and strong reoccurrence daily with ranged from 0.851 to 0.995 (85.1–99.5%) per day based on the spatial distribution. The variability analysis of rainfall in the intermediate and long variability and irregular variability patterns would be helpful for the rainfall variability for environmental planning.

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