Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks

Author(s):  
Lean Yu ◽  
Shouyang Wang ◽  
Kin Keung Lai
Author(s):  
Fathi Ahmed Ali Adam, Mahmoud Mohamed Abdel Aziz Gamal El-Di

The study examined the use of artificial neural network models to predict the exchange rate in Sudan through annual exchange rate data between the US dollar and the Sudanese pound. This study aimed to formulate the models of artificial neural networks in which the exchange rate can be predicted in the coming period. The importance of the study is that it is necessary to use modern models to predict instead of other classical models. The study hypothesized that the models of artificial neural networks have a high ability to predict the exchange rate. Use models of artificial neural networks. The most important results ability of artificial neural networks models to predict the exchange rate accurately, Form MLP (1-1-1) is the best model chosen for that purpose. The study recommended the development of the proposed model for long-term forecasting.


2005 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 79-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAK KABOUDAN

Applying genetic programming and artificial neural networks to raw as well as wavelet-transformed exchange rate data showed that genetic programming may have good extended forecasting abilities. Although it is well known that most predictions of exchange rates using many alternative techniques could not deliver better forecasts than the random walk model, in this paper employing natural computational strategies to forecast three different exchange rates produced two extended forecasts (that go beyond one-step-ahead) that are better than naïve random walk predictions. Sixteen-step-ahead forecasts obtained using genetic programming outperformed the one- and sixteen-step-ahead random walk US dollar/Taiwan dollar exchange rate predictions. Further, sixteen-step-ahead forecasts of the wavelet-transformed US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate also using genetic programming outperformed the sixteen-step-ahead random walk predictions of the exchange rate. However, random walk predictions of the US dollar/British pound exchange rate outperformed all forecasts obtained using genetic programming. Random walk predictions of the same three exchange rates employing raw and wavelet-transformed data also outperformed all forecasts obtained using artificial neural networks.


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