Comparative Study of Forecasting Models for Forex Predictions with the Impact of Different Currencies

- Foreign Exchange (Forex) is the exchange / trading of currencies from different countries with the aim of making profit. Exchange rates on Forex markets are always changing and it is hard to predict. Many factors affect exchange rates of certain currency pairs like inflation rates, interest rates, government debt, term of trade, political stability of certain countries, recession and many more. Uncertainty in Forex prediction can be reduced with the help of technology by using machine learning. There are many machine learning methods that can be used when predicting Forex. The methods used in this paper are Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Support Vector Regression (SVR). XGBOOST, and ARIMA. The outcome of this paper will be comparison results that show how other major currency pairs have influenced the performance and accuracy of different methods. From the results, it was proven that XGBoost outperformed other models by 0.36% compared to ARIMA model, 4.4% compared to GRU model, 8% compared to LSTM model, 9.74% compared to SVR model. Keywords— Forex Forecasting, Long Short Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, Support Vector Regression, ARIMA, Extreme Gradient Boosting

Impact of Monetary Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Against Indonesia's Economic Growth

This study aims to determine the impact of monetary policy and FDI on economic growth and discuss it. The monetary indicator variables used are inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. The data used in this study are secondary data in 1990-2019 sourced from data from the Central Bureau of National Statistics and the World Bank. The analysis model in this study uses Multiple Linear Regression with the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis model. The results of the analysis show that in the long term monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) have a significant effect on economic growth. And in the short term FDI has a significant effect on economic growth. It is concluded that monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) are the main variables that affect economic growth in the long and short term.

External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

Modeling the volatility of exchange rate and international trade in Ghana: empirical evidence from GARCH and EGARCH

PurposeThe volatility of exchange rate has generally been sighted as a primary cause for various shocks and instability in international trade of Ghana as witnessed over the years and most especially in recent times. Hence, owing to the increasing trade levels between Ghana and Ghana's global trading partners, the study aims to investigate if the trade–exchange rate volatility nexus in Ghana supports the positive, negative or ambiguous hypotheses?Design/methodology/approachThe study investigates the effects of Ghana's exchange rate volatility on international trade by designing import and export equations to estimate both short- and long-run specifications of the effect and employing the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) with Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) specification developed by Engle and Kroner (1995) as a further check for the robustness of the findings. Monthly data between 1993 and 2017 on the real effective exchange rates of Ghana's trade with 143 trading partners were taken as the series for modeling the volatility using GARCH andexponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) models.FindingsThe empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate negatively impact export performances in the Ghanian economy. On the other hand, there was no sufficient evidence to support the observed positive effect of exchange rate volatility on imports, as the effects were only significant at 10% level in the long run. Thus, it is concluded that the finding cannot confirm a relationship between volatility and import. Thus, the results present differences in the direction of the effect of exchange rate volatility on imports and exports in the context of the Ghanaian economy.Research limitations/implicationsConsidering the fragility of the Ghanaian economy and Ghana's macro-economic indicators, the study points at the crucial need for more integration of well-informed trade policies within the country's macro-economic policy framework to contain the impacts of exchange rate volatility on trade performances.Practical implicationsThe study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because the method is unsuccessful in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The authors' study circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.Social implicationsThe study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Thus, the study chat a course for socio-economic dynamic of Ghanaian economy.Originality/valueThe study contributes to literature by its scope and method, as extant empirical studies have provided little evidence specifically on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because of the method's inadequacies in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The study thereby essentially circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.

Multi-National Implementation

It is an extremely important feature of Grondona's system that, just as any country implementing it would do so independently on a scale appropriate to their economy, many different countries could establish a CRD without any need for coordination and without in any way hindering each other. On the contrary, as the number of CRDs increased, their collective stabilizing influence on commodity markets would increase proportionately. Moreover, the stabilizing influence on their mutual exchange rates would increase more than proportionately as the number of their mutual exchange rates grew. This contrasts sharply with the proposed international system of buffer stocks which could stabilize no more than a single currency and would become increasingly cumbersome as the number of participating countries increased.

Concept of searching for anchor goods based on the study of commodity indices

The article is devoted to the search for anchor goods — goods whose prices are forming for the prices of groups of goods. The role of the desired anchor product is similar to the role of the anchor currency. The identification of such anchors will allow us to understand the pricing structure, which is presumably of a self-affinity nature. The authors believe that there are several options for why a particular product becomes an anchor: historical, cultural or economic. To identify the main requirements for the anchor product, the behavior and dynamics of price changes of goods included in the CRB index were analyzed. Attention to this index is due, firstly, to its complex but significant role in setting exchange rates, and secondly, its role in analyzing world markets. The CRB index is an indicator of trends in the global commodity market. It displays all the movements and changes in the structure of the world commodity market. The characteristic patterns in the behavior of the goods in question are revealed. Typical phase portraits of their relational series for CRB index products have been revealed. The goods included in the CRB index were regrouped according to the similarity of their behavior relative to each other. Four groups were obtained, within each of which phase portraits of relational time series based on a pair of goods have a similar appearance. Reference phase portraits are described. The basic rules of the anchor product search are formulated based on the study of goods included in the selected commodity index. The conceptual proposals for the search for anchor goods using commodity indexes are formulated Based on the proposed approach, some products were investigated and their ability to play the role of an anchor was evaluated.

The Long-Predicted Failure of the Post-Bretton Woods “Non-System”

The monetary system implemented at Bretton Woods in 1944 made the US dollar the centre of the world economic system, with 43 other countries' currencies linked to it via fixed exchange rates. However, once the US government broke its promise to redeem dollars in gold at $35 per ounce on August 15, 1971, expansion of the supply of dollars was no longer constrained, and like many currencies before it, the lack of monetary discipline led to inflation through which the value of the dollar has fallen by about 98%. The “oil shock” of the 1970s led to the introduction of the “petro-dollar” system whereby Saudi Arabia, then the largest oil producer, agreed to accept only US dollars in payment for its oil in exchange for the US government's pledge to defend it. This shored up demand for the fiat US dollar, enabling it to survive until its now approaching endgame.

Analysis of factors influencing Thai rice trade based on Gravity model

The purpose of this study is to analyse what factors influencing Thai rice export including importers’ GDP, exporters of GDP, distance of the countries, international rice prices, production and exchange rates by using the gravity model approach. The results show that the factors that influence rice exports in Thailand include the GDP of the importing country, the GDP of the exporting country, distance, international rice prices, production and the real exchange rate. Factors that have positive coefficients are importers’ GDP and real exchange rates, while those with negative coefficients are exporters’ GDP, rice prices, production and distance. Positive coefficients include importer’s GDP and Real Exchange Rate. The GDP of the importing country has a positive coefficient of 0.73 and the real exchange rate or RER (Real Exchange Rate) has a positive coefficient of 0.73. In addition, the negative coefficient values include exporters’ GDP, rice prices, production and distance. The exporting country’s GDP has a negative coefficient of 0.98, prices have a negative coefficient of 1.37 and production has a negative coefficient of 0.23 and distance has a negative coefficient of 0.3.