Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations

Author(s):  
P. M. Paradisopoulou ◽  
E. E. Papadimitriou ◽  
V. G. Karakostas ◽  
T. Taymaz ◽  
A. Kilias ◽  
...  
2010 ◽  
Vol 167 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 1013-1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. M. Paradisopoulou ◽  
E. E. Papadimitriou ◽  
V. G. Karakostas ◽  
T. Taymaz ◽  
A. Kilias ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
P.M. Paradisopoulou ◽  
E.E. Papadimitriou ◽  
J. Mirek

Stress triggering must be incorporated into quantitative earthquake probability estimate, given that faults are interacted though their stress field. Using time dependent probability estimates this work aims at the evaluation of the occurrence probability of anticipated earthquakes near the city of Thessaloniki, an urban center of 1 million people located in northern Greece, conditional to the time elapsed since the last stronger event on each fault segment of the study area. A method that calculates the macroseismic epicenter and magnitude according to macroseismic intensities is used to improve the existing earthquake catalog (from AD 1600 - 2013 with M≥6.0) in order to compute new interevent and elapsed time values which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. To investigate the effects of stress transfer to seismic hazard, the probabilistic calculations presented here employ detailed models of coseismic stress associated with the 20 June 1978 M=6.5 Thessaloniki which is the latest destructive earthquake in the area in the instrumental era. The combined 2015-2045 regional Poisson probability of M≥6.0 earthquakes is ~35% the regional time-dependent probability varies from 0% to 15% and incorporation of stress transfer from 0% to 20% for each fault segment.


2005 ◽  
Vol 162 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 1347-1366 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Alejandro Nava ◽  
Claudia Herrera ◽  
José Frez ◽  
Ewa Glowacka

2013 ◽  
Vol 184 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Baize ◽  
Edward Marc Cushing ◽  
Francis Lemeille ◽  
Hervé Jomard

Abstract This work presents the seismotectonic zoning scheme of Metropolitan France developed by the IRSN (French Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety) within the framework of its seismic hazard assessment activities. It is the outcome of many years of work following the publication of the “seismotectonic atlas” in 1993 [Grellet et al., 1993]. This scheme supports the assessment of seismic hazard by IRSN. It takes into account the most recent data concerning the deep and surface geology, as well as those related to seismotectonics and tectonic activity. It finally includes 67 surface seismotectonic zones (STZ), as well as a catalogue of 74 faults or structures (named hereafter “potential active faults”) for which indications of Neogene to Quaternary displacement can be inferred. The description of the zoning scheme comes along with an estimation of the uncertainty on the boundary location between adjacent STZ. We also qualitatively determine a “relevance order” for each limit, so as to illustrate their reliability to separate regions of different seismogenic potential. Also, we attributed to the faults an indication whose purpose is to reflect the recent character of their activity, and thus their seismotectonic potential. This assessment of uncertainties was undertaken to better integrate the zoning scheme in the general approach, which arises from recent studies, namely the propagation of the uncertainties in seismic hazard evaluation, whether deterministic or probabilistic.


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