Abstract
Ground vehicle traffic jams are a serious issue in today’s society. Despite advances in traffic flow management in recent years, predicting traffic jams is still a challenge. Recently, novel techniques have been developed in complex systems theory to enable forecasting emergent behaviors in dynamical systems. Forecasting methods have been developed based on exploiting the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which occurs in dynamical systems near certain types of bifurcations and phase transitions. Herein, we explore recently developed tools of tipping point forecasting in complex systems, namely early warning indicators and bifurcation forecasting methods, and investigate their application to predict traffic jams on roads. The measurements required for forecasting are recorded dynamical features of the system such as headways between cars in traffic or density of cars on road. Forecasting approaches are applied to simulated and experimental traffic flow conditions. Results show that one can successfully predict proximity to the critical point of congestion as well as traffic dynamics after this critical point using the proposed approaches. The methodologies presented can be used to analyze stability of traffic models and address challenges related to the complexity of traffic dynamics.
Blended particle filters for large-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems
