Partial Equilibrium Welfare Analysis Under Uncertainty

Author(s):  
Takashi Hayashi
2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 950-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajan Parajuli ◽  
Daowei Zhang

In this paper, we evaluate the market and welfare effects of the 2006 United States (U.S.) – Canada Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA 2006) based on a U.S. import demand model for Canadian softwood lumber. We find that SLA 2006 reduces the U.S. lumber imports from Canada by 7.78% in the months when export taxes took effect. The welfare analysis based on a partial equilibrium framework shows that U.S. lumber producers gained $1.6 billion and U.S. consumers lost $2.3 billion in 9 years under SLA 2006.


1999 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Blackorby

Author(s):  
Jamal Othman ◽  
Yaghoob Jafari

Malaysia is contemplating removal of most of her subsidy support measures including subsidies on cooking oil which is largely palm oil based. This paper aims to examine the effects of cooking oil subsidy removals on the competitiveness of the oil palm subsector and related markets. This is done by developing and applying a comparative static, multi-commodity, partial equilibrium model with multi-stages of production function for the Malaysian perennial crops subsector which explicitly links different stages of production, primary and intermediate input markets, trade, and policy linkages. Results partly suggest that export of cooking oil will increase by 0.2 per cent due to a 10 per cent cooking oil subsidy reduction, while domestic output of cooking oil may eventually see a net decline of 1.97 per cent. The results clearly point out that the effect of reducing cooking oil subsidies is relatively small at the upstream levels and therefore it only induces minute effects on factor markets. Consequently, the market for other agricultural crops is projected to change very marginally.   Keywords: Multicomodity, comparative statics, partial equilibrium model, output supply-factor markets linkages, effects of cooking oil subsidy removals.


1979 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-115
Author(s):  
T. N. Srinivasan

The paper is too long for conveying the message that shadow pricing used as a method of analysis in micro-economic issues of project selection is also useful for analysing macro-economic issues, such as foreign and domestic borrowing by the government, emigration, etc. Much of the methodological discussion in the paper is available in a readily accessible form in several publications of each of the coauthors; In contrast, the specific application of the methodology to Pakistani problems is much too cavalier. While it is hard to disagree with the authors' claim that shadow pricing "constitutes a relatively informal attempt to capture general equilibrium effects" (p. 89, emphasis added), their depiction of traditional analysis is a bit of a caricature: essentially it sets up a strawman to knock down. After all in the traditional partial equilibrium analysis, the caveat is always entered that the results are possibly sensitive to violation of the ceteris paribus assumptions of the analysis, though often the analysts will claim that extreme sensitivity is unlikely. Analogously, the shadow pricing method presumes "stationarity" of shadow prices in the sense that they are “independent of policy changes under review" (p. 90). The essential point to be noted is that the validity of this assertion or of the "not too extreme sensitivity" assertion of partial equilibrium analysts can be tested only with a full scale general equilibrium model! At any rate this reviewer would not pose the issue as one of traditional partial equilibrium macro-analysis versus shadow pricing as an approximate general equilibrium analysis, but would prefer a description of project analysis as an approach in which a macro-general equilibrium model of a manageable size (implicit or explicit) is used to derive a set of key shadow prices which are then used in a detailed micro-analysis of projects.


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