People in Need of Long-term Care: The Present and the Future

2010 ◽  
pp. 14-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Pfaff
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The Future

The Experience of Long Term Care in the Future

1989 ◽  
Vol 14 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 3-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carter Catlett Williams
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The Future

Long-Term Care for the Future

2017 ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Peter J. Whitehouse
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Projection of Long-Term Care Costs in China, 2020–2050: Based on the Bayesian Quantile Regression Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaocang Xu ◽  
Linhong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Severe Disabilities ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Bayesian Quantile Regression ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

The aging population in China highlights the significance of elderly long-term care (LTC) services. The number of people aged 65 and above increased from 96 million in 2003 to 150 million in 2016, some of whom were disabled due to chronic diseases or the natural effects of aging on bodily functions. Therefore, the measurement of future LTC costs is of crucial value. Following the basic framework but using different empirical methods from those presented in previous literature, this paper attempts to use the Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) method, which has many advantages over traditional linear regression. Another innovation consists of setting and measuring the high, middle, and low levels of LTC cost prediction for each disability state among the elderly in 2020–2050. Our projections suggest that by 2020, LTC costs will increase to median values of 39.46, 8.98, and 20.25 billion dollars for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities, respectively; these numbers will reach 141.7, 32.28, and 72.78 billion dollars by 2050. The median level of daily life care for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities will increase to 26.23, 6.36, and 27 billion dollars. Our results showed that future LTC cost increases will be enormous, and therefore, the establishment of a reasonable individual-social-government payment mechanism is necessary for the LTC system. The future design of an LTCI system must take into account a variety of factors, including the future elderly population, different care conditions, the financial burden of the government, etc., in order to maintain the sustainable development of the LTC system.

scholarly journals What Happened to Long‐Term Care in the Health Reform Debate of 1993–1994? Lessons for the Future

2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M. Wiener ◽  
Carroll L. Estes ◽  
Susan M. Goldenson ◽  
Sheryl C. Goldberg
Keyword(s):  
Health Reform ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The Future ◽  
Reform Debate
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