This paper confirms the principal possibility of using synergetics in macroeconomic studies. It noted that the presence in economic systems of all science typologies requires using subjects of natural and engineering sciences for the study of economic objects as well. Ignoring this fact hinders the development of fundamental economic knowledge and, as consequence, conditions the use of metaphysical concepts in developed models. Since the above interdisciplinarity is inherent in synergetics, its applicability in macroeconomics is considered. On the example of modeling economic systems, it is demonstrated that their essence (nonlinear space-time structure) corresponds to the basic provisions of synergetics. Therefore, its tools are eligible in the tasks of macroeconomic analysis. As an example, this paper proposes the stochastic model of economic cycles explaining their phenomenon as well as providing the quantitative (parametric) description of cycles. Novelty of the model describing the cycles as random oscillations is tied to the probabilistic description of the investment function and the perception of the economic system as a material object with certain inherent properties. According to a proposed model, the income oscillations are induced by both exogenous (investment fluctuations) and endogenous (economic system elasticity) causes. The values of fluctuations of the income function around its longterm trend relate to the value of intensity of investment fluctuations as well as the gain (efficiency) of the economic system. The duration of the cycle is related to the inclusive wealth of the system and its dynamic factor, which characterizes the system’s ability to withstand investment fluctuations as well as to eliminate their consequences. Prospects of practical applications of the considered model were demonstrated on the example of cycle management.
Probability analysis of dynamical effects of axial piston hydraulic motor