A certain limit of iterated conditional tail expectation

Author(s):  
Shigeo Kusuoka
Author(s):  
Abderrahim El Attar ◽  
Mostafa El Hachloufi ◽  
Zine El Abidine Guennoun

In this paper we present an approach to minimize the actuarial risk for the optimal choice of a form of reinsurance, and this is intended to be through a choice of treated parameters that minimize the risk using the Conditional Tail Expectation and the Conditional Tail Variance risk measures. The minimization procedure is based on the Augmented Lagrangian and a genetic algorithm with technical benefit as a constraint. This approach can be seen as a decision support tool that can be used by managers to minimize the actuarial risk in the insurance company.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-146
Author(s):  
Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi ◽  
Ali Panahi Bazaz

AbstractAn usual reinsurance policy for insurance companies admits one or two layers of the payment deductions. Under optimality criterion of minimising the Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE) risk measure of the insurer’s total risk, this article generalises an optimal stop-loss reinsurance policy to an optimal multi-layer reinsurance policy. To achieve such optimal multi-layer reinsurance policy, this article starts from a given optimal stop-loss reinsurance policy f(⋅). In the first step, it cuts down the interval [0, ∞) into intervals [0, M1) and [M1, ∞). By shifting the origin of Cartesian coordinate system to (M1, f(M1)), and showing that under the CTE criteria $$f\left( x \right)I_{{[0,M_{{\rm 1}} )}} \left( x \right){\plus}\left( {f\left( {M_{{\rm 1}} } \right){\plus}f\left( {x{\minus}M_{{\rm 1}} } \right)} \right)I_{{[M_{{\rm 1}} ,{\rm }\infty)}} \left( x \right)$$ is, again, an optimal policy. This extension procedure can be repeated to obtain an optimal k-layer reinsurance policy. Finally, unknown parameters of the optimal multi-layer reinsurance policy are estimated using some additional appropriate criteria. Three simulation-based studies have been conducted to demonstrate: (1) the practical applications of our findings and (2) how one may employ other appropriate criteria to estimate unknown parameters of an optimal multi-layer contract. The multi-layer reinsurance policy, similar to the original stop-loss reinsurance policy is optimal, in a same sense. Moreover, it has some other optimal criteria which the original policy does not have. Under optimality criterion of minimising a general translative and monotone risk measure ρ(⋅) of either the insurer’s total risk or both the insurer’s and the reinsurer’s total risks, this article (in its discussion) also extends a given optimal reinsurance contract f(⋅) to a multi-layer and continuous reinsurance policy.


2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Hürlimann

AbstractWe consider the multivariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional-Tail-Expectation (CTE) risk measures introduced in Cousin and Di Bernardino (Cousin, A. and Di Bernardino, E. (2013) Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 119, 32–46; Cousin, A. and Di Bernardino, E. (2014) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 55(C), 272–282). For absolutely continuous Archimedean copulas, we derive integral formulas for the multivariate VaR and CTE Archimedean risk measures. We show that each component of the multivariate VaR and CTE functional vectors is an integral transform of the corresponding univariate VaR measures. For the class of Archimedean copulas, the marginal components of the CTE vector satisfy the following properties: positive homogeneity (PH), translation invariance (TI), monotonicity (MO), safety loading (SL) and VaR inequality (VIA). In case marginal risks satisfy the subadditivity (MSA) property, the marginal CTE components are also sub-additive and hitherto coherent risk measures in the usual sense. Moreover, the increasing risk (IR) or stop-loss order preserving property of the marginal CTE components holds for the class of bivariate Archimedean copulas. A counterexample to the (IR) property for the trivariate Clayton copula is included.


2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 717-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bangwon Ko ◽  
Ralph P. Russo ◽  
Nariankadu D. Shyamalkumar

AbstractThe α-level Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE) of a continuous random variable X is defined as its conditional expectation given the event {X > qα} where qα represents its α-level quantile. It is well known that the empirical CTE (the average of the n (1 – α) largest order statistics in a sample of size n) is a negatively biased estimator of the CTE. This bias vanishes as the sample size increases, but in small samples can be significant. In this article it is shown that an unbiased nonparametric estimator of the CTE does not exist. In addition, the asymptotic behavior of the bias of the empirical CTE is studied, and a closed form expression for its first order term is derived. This expression facilitates the study of the behavior of the empirical CTE with respect to the underlying distribution, and suggests an alternative (to the bootstrap) approach to bias correction. The performance of the resulting estimator is assessed via simulation.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taehan Bae ◽  
Ian Iscoe

We consider the distribution of the sum of Bernoulli mixtures under a general dependence structure. The level of dependence is measured in terms of a limiting conditional correlation between two of the Bernoulli random variables. The conditioning event is that the mixing random variable is larger than a threshold and the limit is with respect to the threshold tending to one. The large-sample distribution of the empirical frequency and its use in approximating the risk measures, value at risk and conditional tail expectation, are presented for a new class of models which we calldouble mixtures. Several illustrative examples with a Beta mixing distribution, are given. As well, some data from the area of credit risk are fit with the models, and comparisons are made between the new models and also the classical Beta-binomial model.


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