Do Land Markets Matter? A Modeling Ontology and Experimental Design to Test the Effects of Land Markets for an Agent-Based Model of Ex-Urban Residential Land-Use Change

2011 ◽  
pp. 525-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawn C. Parker ◽  
Daniel G. Brown ◽  
Tatiana Filatova ◽  
Rick Riolo ◽  
Derek T. Robinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Markets ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Residential Land ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Residential Land Use

scholarly journals How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum Brown ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
Mark Rounsevell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
System Development ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Landscape Scales

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.

scholarly journals Modeling and Managing Urban Growth at the Rural-Urban Fringe: A Parcel-Level Model of Residential Land Use Change

2003 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena G. Irwin ◽  
Kathleen P. Bell ◽  
Jacqueline Geoghegan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Growth Management ◽  
Smart Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Urban Fringe ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Residential Land ◽  
Residential Land Use

As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that “smart growth” objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.

scholarly journals Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

Land ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1110-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deng Ding ◽  
David Bennett ◽  
Silvia Secchi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Alternative Crop

scholarly journals Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. e0190506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Dislich ◽  
Elisabeth Hettig ◽  
Jan Salecker ◽  
Johannes Heinonen ◽  
Jann Lay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Tropical Landscapes

A Study of Future Residential Land Use Change considering Climate Change using Land Use Equilibrium Model in Jeju

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Somin Yoo ◽  
Woo-Kyun Lee ◽  
Yoshiki Yamagata ◽  
Jiyoung Kim ◽  
Moon-Il Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Residential Land ◽  
Residential Land Use
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