Danish EPA Use of Models for Assessment of Pesticides Mobility

Author(s):  
Christian Deibjerg Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
William B. Rouse

This book discusses the use of models and interactive visualizations to explore designs of systems and policies in determining whether such designs would be effective. Executives and senior managers are very interested in what “data analytics” can do for them and, quite recently, what the prospects are for artificial intelligence and machine learning. They want to understand and then invest wisely. They are reasonably skeptical, having experienced overselling and under-delivery. They ask about reasonable and realistic expectations. Their concern is with the futurity of decisions they are currently entertaining. They cannot fully address this concern empirically. Thus, they need some way to make predictions. The problem is that one rarely can predict exactly what will happen, only what might happen. To overcome this limitation, executives can be provided predictions of possible futures and the conditions under which each scenario is likely to emerge. Models can help them to understand these possible futures. Most executives find such candor refreshing, perhaps even liberating. Their job becomes one of imagining and designing a portfolio of possible futures, assisted by interactive computational models. Understanding and managing uncertainty is central to their job. Indeed, doing this better than competitors is a hallmark of success. This book is intended to help them understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it. The hope is that readers will discuss this book and develop a “shared mental model” of computational modeling in the process, which will greatly enhance their chances of success.


2020 ◽  
Vol 126 ◽  
pp. 106351
Author(s):  
Jose Luis de la Vara ◽  
Beatriz Marín ◽  
Clara Ayora ◽  
Giovanni Giachetti

1971 ◽  
Vol os-18 (6) ◽  
pp. 241-253
Author(s):  
Eugene A. Nida

Culture change is of great interest to anthropologists, but none has developed a satisfactory model to explain it. The existence of various approaches to the study of religion points to the multidimensional nature of religion. In order to account for deletion, addition, substitution, and coalescence in religious change, the author proposes the use of models from economics and linguistics (the latter will be handled in the next issue). Economics models provide useful insights through the concepts of value and cost. For experience shows that in religion as in the market place, lowering the price of a “commodity” can also lower its value and therefore its desirability. It is shown also that values are based upon the total worldview of a society. They must also be related to the felt needs of people rather than to artificially ascribed needs. Finally, the author discusses the relevance of the concepts of “unlimited desire” in the face of “limited resources”.


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