scholarly journals Long-term polar motion prediction using normal time–frequency transform

2013 ◽  
Vol 88 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqing Su ◽  
Lintao Liu ◽  
Hsu Houtse ◽  
Guocheng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Polar Motion ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Polar Motion Prediction

Selecting data for autoregressive modeling in polar motion prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 557-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Wu ◽  
Guobin Chang ◽  
Kazhong Deng ◽  
Wuyong Tao
Keyword(s):  
Polar Motion ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Autoregressive Modeling ◽  
Polar Motion Prediction

scholarly journals Polar motion prediction using the combination of SSA and Copula-based analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadegh Modiri ◽  
Santiago Belda ◽  
Robert Heinkelmann ◽  
Mostafa Hoseini ◽  
José M. Ferrándiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Polar Motion ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Polar Motion Prediction

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of polar motion using MSSA method

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Jin ◽  
Xin Liu ◽  
Jinyun Guo ◽  
Yi Shen
Keyword(s):  
Polar Motion ◽  
Rotation Axis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Rotational Axis ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽  
System Service ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Polar Motion Prediction

AbstractPolar motion is the movement of the Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust, reflecting the influence of the material exchange and mass redistribution of each layer of the Earth on the Earth's rotation axis. To better analyze the temporally varying characteristics of polar motion, multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was used to analyze the EOP 14 C04 series released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS) from 1962 to 2020, and the amplitude of the Chandler wobbles were found to fluctuate between 20 and 200 mas and decrease significantly over the last 20 years. The amplitude of annual oscillation fluctuated between 60 and 120 mas, and the long-term trend was 3.72 mas/year, moving towards N56.79 °W. To improve prediction of polar motion, the MSSA method combining linear model and autoregressive moving average model was used to predict polar motion with ahead 1 year, repeatedly. Comparing to predictions of IERS Bulletin A, the results show that the proposed method can effectively predict polar motion, and the improvement rates of polar motion prediction for 365 days into the future were approximately 50% on average.

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