scholarly journals Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: An Analysis of the Subprime-Mortgage Financial Crisis

De Economist ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 157 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin F. Hellwig
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Subprime Mortgage

scholarly journals Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Foggitt ◽  
Andre Heymans ◽  
Gary W. Van Vuuren ◽  
Anmar Pretorius
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South African ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Ethical Behaviour ◽  
The South ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011) stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk.Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised.Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK) of the South African (SA) banking sector between 2001 and 2013.Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK.Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly.Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst-case scenario analyses (such as those in this study) could aid in determining exactly how much capital banks could need in order to be considered sufficiently capitalised during a financial crisis, and therefore safe from systemic risk.

scholarly journals Measuring the probability of a financial crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (37) ◽  
pp. 18341-18346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert F. Engle ◽  
Tianyue Ruan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Capacity Measure ◽  
Natural Response ◽  
Tail Events

When financial firms are undercapitalized, they are vulnerable to external shocks. The natural response to such vulnerability is to reduce leverage, and this can endogenously start a financial crisis. Excessive credit growth, the main cause of financial crises, is reflected in the undercapitalization of the financial sector. Market-based measures of systemic risk such as SRISK, which stands for systemic risk, enable monitoring how such weakness emerges and progresses in real time. In this paper, we develop quantitative estimates of the level of systemic risk in the financial sector that precipitates a financial crisis. Common approaches to reduce leverage correspond to specific scaling of systemic risk measures. In an econometric framework that recognizes financial crises represent left tail events for the economy, we estimate the relationship between SRISK and the financial crisis severity for 23 developed countries. We develop a probability of crisis measure and an SRISK capacity measure based on our estimates. Our analysis highlights the important global externality whereby the risk of a crisis in one country is strongly influenced by the undercapitalization of the rest of the world.

Systemic Risk 10 Years Later

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Engle
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
New Research

Ten years ago, the financial crisis spurred research focused on systemic risk. This article examines the history and application of the SRISK measure, which was developed at that time and is now widely used in monitoring systemic risk around the globe. The concept is explained and a variety of ways to measure SRISK are developed. In this article, new results are presented on the uncertainty associated with the SRISK measure and on how it compares with other related measures from both academics and regulators. By focusing on the mechanism by which undercapitalization of the financial sector initiates a financial crisis, new research examines how the probability of a financial crisis is affected by the level of SRISK and, consequently, how much SRISK a country can stand without having a high probability of crisis. The model used to evaluate this probability recognizes the externalities between financial institutions that make an undercapitalized firm or country more fragile if other firms and countries are also undercapitalized.

scholarly journals Fiinancial Stability and Reform of the Financial System

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 58-69
Author(s):  
Juraj Sipko
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
Macroprudential Policy

Abstract The paper describes the main features of financial stability and the preparation of the reform of the global financial system. The mortgage crisis in the USA brought about the global financial crisis. This crisis was the result of the failure of financial regulation, including supervision, and the failure of the management of the banking industry. Therefore, the international community, including Group 20, urged the appropriate institutions to introduce a comprehensive reform of the financial sector. To avoid a potential financial crisis, the creation of the framework for financial stability would be needed. In line with this, the paper examines the interaction between both monetary and fiscal policies, including micro-and macroprudential policies and their instruments. Although still is going on discussion on definition of macroprudential policy, there is a generally accepted opinion that macroprudential policy should limit systemic risk. In addition, this policy should focus on interaction between the financial system and the real economy. Furthermore, micro- andmacroprudential policy should use appropriate instruments in dealing with the systemic risk. In this regard, the article undescores that put in a place the frameworkfor financial stability will create favorable conditions for decision-makers how they should to respond to financial imbalances. The paper also pointed out some potential economic costs related to the implementation of the overall international reform of the financial sector. Based on comprehensive literature study, the author came to the conclusion that despite the fact that there will be some economic costs related to implementing the overall regulatory reform of the financial sector, the main benefit from the long-term perspective will be avoiding the potential financial crisis in the future. To fulfill all the requirements for global financial reform, international cooperation will be needed.

Did Bankruptcy Reform Cause Mortgage Defaults to Rise?

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 123-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenli Li ◽  
Michelle J White ◽  
Ning Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Budget Constraints ◽  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Default Rates ◽  
Mortgage Defaults

Homeowners in financial distress can use bankruptcy to avoid defaulting on their mortgages, since filing loosens their budget constraints. But the 2005 bankruptcy reform made bankruptcy less favorable to homeowners and therefore caused mortgage defaults to rise. We test this relationship and find that the reform caused prime and subprime mortgage default rates to rise by 23% and 14%, respectively. Default rates rose even more for homeowners who were particularly negatively affected by the reform. We calculate that bankruptcy reform caused mortgage default rates to rise by one percentage point even before the start of the financial crisis. (JEL D14, G01, G21, K35)

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