Pedestrian Injury Severity in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A Latent Segmentation-Based Logit Modeling Approach

Pedestrian-vehicle crashes can result in serious injury to pedestrians, who are exposed to danger when in close proximity to moving vehicles. Furthermore, these injuries can be considerably serious and even lead to death in a manner that varies depending on the pedestrian’s age. This is because the pedestrian’s physical characteristics and behaviors, particularly in relation to roads with moving vehicles, differ depending on the pedestrian’s age. This study examines the determinants of pedestrian injury severity by pedestrian age using binary logistic regression. Factors in the built environment, such as road characteristics and land use of the places where pedestrian crashes occurred, were considered, as were the accident characteristics of the pedestrians and drivers. The analysis determined that the accident characteristics of drivers and pedestrians are more influential in pedestrian-vehicle crashes than the factors of the built environmental characteristics. However, there are substantial differences in injury severity relative to the pedestrian’s age. Young pedestrians (aged under 20 years old) are more likely to suffer serious injury in school zones; however, no association between silver zones and injury severity is found for elderly pedestrians. For people in the age range of 20–39 years old, the severity of pedestrian injuries is lower in areas with more crosswalks and speed cameras. People in the age range of 40–64 years old are more likely to be injured in areas with more neighborhood streets and industrial land use. Elderly pedestrians are likely to suffer fatal injuries in areas with more traffic signals. This study finds that there are differences in the factors of pedestrian injury severity according to the age of pedestrians. Therefore, it is suggested that concrete and efficient policies related to pedestrian age are required to improve pedestrian safety and reduce pedestrian-vehicle crashes.

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Examining pedestrian-injury severity using alternative disaggregate models

Research in Transportation Economics ◽

10.1016/j.retrec.2012.12.002 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 43 (1) ◽

pp. 123-136 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Kibrom A. Abay

Keyword(s):

Injury Severity ◽

Pedestrian Injury ◽

Disaggregate Models

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A Novel Approach to Multihazard Modeling and Simulation

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness ◽

10.1097/dmp.0b013e3181a88899 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 75-87 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Silas W. Smith ◽

Ian Portelli ◽

Giuseppe Narzisi ◽

Lewis S. Nelson ◽

Fabian Menges ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Injury Severity ◽

Agent Based Modeling ◽

Psychosocial Characteristics ◽

Disaster Plan ◽

Agent Based ◽

Information System Architecture ◽

Modeling Approach ◽

Novel Approach ◽

Systemic Stress

ABSTRACTObjective: To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment.Methods: An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims.Results: In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible.Conclusions: An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:75–87)

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