Short-Term Segment-Level Crash Risk Prediction Using Advanced Data Modeling with Proactive and Reactive Crash Data

Highway crashes, along with the property damage, personal injuries, and fatalities that they cause, continue to present one of the most significant and critical transportation problems. At the same time, provision of safe travel is one of the main goals of any transportation system. For this reason, both in transportation research and practice much attention has been given to the analysis and modeling of traffic crashes, including the development of models that can be applied to predict crash occurrence and crash severity. In general, such models assess short-term crash risks at a given highway facility, thus providing intelligence that can be used to identify and implement traffic operations strategies for crash mitigation and prevention. This paper presents several crash risk and injury severity assessment models applied at a highway segment level, considering the input data that is typically collected or readily available to most transportation agencies in real-time and at a regional network scale, which would render them readily applicable in practice. The input data included roadway geometry characteristics, traffic flow characteristics, and weather condition data. The paper develops, tests, and compares the performance of models that employ Random effects Bayesian Logistics Regression, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Machine methods. The paper applies random oversampling examples (ROSE) method to deal with the problem of data imbalance associated with the injury severity analysis. The models were trained and tested using a dataset of 10,155 crashes that occurred on two interstate highways in New Jersey over a two-year period. The paper also analyzes the potential improvement in the prediction abilities of the tested models by adding reactive data to the analysis. To that end, traffic crashes were classified in multiple classes based on the driver age and the vehicle age to assess the impact of these attributes on driver injury severity outcomes. The results of this analysis are promising, showing that the simultaneous use of reactive and proactive data can improve the prediction performance of the presented models.

Risk of Mortality in Association with Pregnancy in Women following Motor Vehicle Crashes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The aim of the study was to provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies examining the association between mortality risk and motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) in pregnant women compared with nonpregnant women. We used relevant MeSH terms to identify epidemiological studies of mortality risk in relation to MVCs from PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE databases. The Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used for quality assessment. For comparison of mortality from MVCs between pregnant and nonpregnant women, the pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random effects model. The eight studies selected met all inclusion criteria. These studies included 14,120 injured victims who were pregnant at the time of the incident and 207,935 victims who were not pregnant. Compared with nonpregnant women, pregnant women had a moderate but insignificant decrease in mortality risk (pooled OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.38–1.22, I2 = 88.71%). Subgroup analysis revealed that the pooled OR significantly increased at 1.64 (95% CI = 1.16–2.33, I2 < 0.01%) for two studies with a similar difference in the mean injury severity score (ISS) between pregnant and nonpregnant women. Future studies should further explore the risk factors associated with MVCs in pregnant women to reduce maternal mortality.

National trauma system establishment based on implementation of regional trauma centers improves outcomes of trauma care: A follow-up observational study in South Korea

Although South Korea is a high-income country, its trauma system is comparable to low- and middle-income countries with high preventable trauma death rates of more than 30%. Since 2012, South Korea has established a national trauma system based on the implementation of regional trauma centers and improvement of the transfer system; this study aimed to evaluate its effectiveness. We compared the national preventable trauma death rates, transfer patterns, and outcomes between 2015 and 2017. The review of preventable trauma deaths was conducted by multiple panels, and a severity-adjusted logistic regression model was created to identify factors influencing the preventable trauma death rate. We also compared the number of trauma patients transferred to emergency medical institutions and mortality in models adjusted with injury severity scores. The preventable trauma death rate decreased from 2015 to 2017 (30.5% vs. 19.9%, p < 0.001). In the severity-adjusted model, the preventable trauma death risk had a lower odds ratio (0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.53–0.87, p = 0.002) in 2017 than in 2015. Regional trauma centers received 1.6 times more severe cases in 2017 (according to the International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score [ICISS]; 23.1% vs. 36.5%). In the extended ICISS model, the overall trauma mortality decreased significantly from 2.1% (1008/47 806) to 1.9% (1062/55 057) (p = 0.041). The establishment of the national trauma system was associated with significant improvements in the performance and outcomes of trauma care. This was mainly because of the implementation of regional trauma centers and because more severe patients were transferred to regional trauma centers. This study might be a good model for low- and middle-income countries, which lack a trauma system.

Octogenarian Motor Vehicle Collisions: Injury Patterns Matter

Introduction. Motor vehicle collision (MVC) is the second most common mechanism of injury among octogenarians and is on the rise. These “oldest old” trauma patients have much higher mortality rates than expected. This study examined potential factors influencing this increased mortality including comorbidities, medications, injury patterns, and hospital interventions. Methods. A 10-year retrospective review was conducted of patients aged 80 and over who were injured in a MVC. Data collected included patient demographics, comorbidities, medication use prior to injury, collision details, injury severity and patterns, hospitalization details, outcomes, and discharge disposition. Results. We identified 239 octogenarian patients involved in a MVC. Overall mortality was 18.8%. We recognized an increased mortality for specific injury patterns, patients injured in a rural setting, and those who were transfused, intubated, or admitted to the ICU. We found no correlation between mortality and medications or comorbidities. Conclusions. The high mortality rate for octogenarian patients involved in a MVC is related to injury severity, type of injury, and in-hospital complications, and not due to comorbidities and prior medications.

A profile of adult patients with major burns admitted to a Level 1 Trauma Centre and their functional outcomes at discharge: A retrospective review

Background: Patients with major burns suffer with pain, which impacts their physical function during hospitalisation.Objectives: To describe the demographics, burn characteristics, clinical course, physical function, complications developed after major burns and to establish predictors of non-independent physical function at hospital discharge.Method: Records of all consecutive adult burn admissions to a Level 1 Trauma Centre between 2015 and 2017 were screened retrospectively against our study criteria, using the Trauma Bank Data Registry. Anonymised data from included records were captured on specifically designed data extraction forms. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise findings. A regression analysis was undertaken to establish predictors of non-independent function at discharge.Results: Males represented 87.7% (n = 64) of included records (n = 73). Median age was 38 (interquartile range [IQR]: 22). Thermal burns were most reported (n = 47, 64.4%), followed by median total body surface area (TBSA) 31% and head and arms were most affected (60.3% and 71.2%). Injury severity was high with median intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) of 17 (IQR: 34) and hospital LOS 44 (IQR: 31) days. Wound debridement was mostly performed (n = 27, 36.9%) with limb oedema as a common complication (n = 15, 21.7%). Muscle strength and functional performance improved throughout LOS. None of the variables identified were predictors of non-independent function at hospital discharge.Conclusion: Adults with major burns were predominantly male, in mid-life and sustained thermal injury with a high injury severity. Decreased range of motion (ROM) of affected areas, ‘fair’ muscle strength and independent function were recorded for most patients at hospital discharge.Clinical implications: These findings contribute to the limited body of evidence on the profile, clinical course and outcomes of South African adult burn patients.

Intentional Fallers with Complex Pelvic and Acetabular Fractures Do Not Have worse Radiological and Functional Outcomes than Accidental Fallers

Individuals who fall from heights of ≥6 m can suffer from complex pelvic and acetabular fractures. The extent to which an intentional fall correlates with prognosis and outcome after osteosynthesis is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of fallers with pelvic and acetabular fractures after osteosynthesis and compare the radiological and functional outcomes between intentional and accidental fallers. We retrospectively reviewed 49 fallers who fell from heights of ≥6 m, developed pelvic and acetabular fractures, survived after resuscitation, and completed surgical treatment between 2014 and 2017. Fallers were divided into intentional and accidental fallers. Sixteen patients were intentional fallers, whereas the rest of the patients were accidental fallers. Psychiatric counseling was provided to each of the intentional fallers during follow-up. All intentional fallers had preexisting mental disorders, and the most common diagnosis was adjustment disorder. The group of intentional fallers predominantly comprised females that had a higher injury and new injury severity scores and longer hospital stays. However, early loss of fixation (<3 months) and functional outcomes (Merle d’Aubigné and Majeed hip scores at 6- and 12-month follow-ups) did not significantly differ between intentional and accidental fallers. We found that intentional fallers with pelvic and acetabular fractures may have more severe combined injuries compared to accidental fallers. However, the radiological and functional outcomes of the intentional fallers after osteosynthesis were not inferior to those of the accidental fallers with the implementation of well-designed surgical protocols and individualized physical and mental rehabilitation programs.

Pediatric Electrical Bicycle Road Accidents

Introduction The use of electric bicycles (EBs) among children younger than 18 years of age is rapidly increasing worldwide and becoming a substantial contributor to road accidents. We analyzed patterns and severity of pediatric bicycle-related injuries, comparing children riding EBs and classic bicycles (CBs). Materials and Methods This was a retrospective study (January 2016–December 2018) of patients arriving at our medical center due to a bicycle accident. Data were collected from medical records and included demographics, injury characteristics, treatment, and outcomes. Results Of 561 children, 197 (35%) were EB riders and 364 (65%) were CB riders. Injury severity score (ISS) of EB cyclists was significantly higher than CB cyclists (mean 4.08 ± 4.67 and 3.16 ± 2.84, respectively, p = 0.012). The rate of accidents involving motorized vehicles was higher in the EB versus CB group (25.9 vs. 11.3%, p < 0.001). Head injuries were the most common type of injury in both groups; incidence was higher in CB than in EB cyclists. However, loss of consciousness was more common in the EB group (18.3 and 12.1%, respectively, p = 0.057). Lower extremity injuries were more common in EBs versus CBs (55.8 and 37.6%, respectively, p < 0.001). Orthopaedic surgical interventions were significantly higher in the EB group (49.2 vs. 33.2%, p < 0.001), and length of stay in hospital and admission to pediatric intensive care unit were more common in EB compared with CB, although not significantly. Conclusion Injury severity of EB patients was significantly higher than that of CB patients. Accidents involving motorized vehicles were more common in the EB group. Head injury associated with loss of consciousness was significantly higher in EB patients.

HMGB1 Inhibition to Ameliorate Organ Failure and Increase Survival in Trauma

Several preclinical and clinical reports have demonstrated that levels of circulating high mobility group box 1 protein (HMGB1) are increased early after trauma and are associated with systemic inflammation and clinical outcomes. However, the mechanisms of the interaction between HMGB1 and inflammatory mediators that lead to the development of remote organ damage after trauma remain obscure. HMGB1 and inflammatory mediators were analyzed in plasma from 54 combat casualties, collected on admission to a military hospital in Iraq, and at 8 and 24 h after admission. In total, 45 (83%) of these patients had traumatic brain injury (TBI). Nine healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. HMGB1 plasma levels were significantly increased in the first 8 h after admission, and were found to be associated with systemic inflammatory responses, injury severity score, and presence of TBI. These data provided the rationale for designing experiments in rats subjected to blast injury and hemorrhage, to explore the effect of HMGB1 inhibition by CX-01 (2-O, 3-O desulfated heparin). Animals were cannulated, then recovered for 5–7 days before blast injury in a shock tube and volume-controlled hemorrhage. Blast injury and hemorrhage induced an early increase in HMGB1 plasma levels that coincided with severity of tissue damage and mortality. CX-01 inhibited systemic HMGB1 activity, decreased local and systemic inflammatory responses, significantly reduced tissue and organ damage, and tended to increase survival. These data suggest that CX-01 has potential as an adjuvant treatment for traumatic hemorrhage.