Research on prediction of China’s financial systematic risk based on the hybrid model

An important feature of the outbreak of systemic financial risk is that the linkage and contagion of risk amongst the various sub-markets of the financial system have increased significantly. In addition, research on the prediction of systemic financial risk plays a significant role in the sustainable development of the financial market. Therefore, this paper takes China’s financial market as its research object, considers the risks co-activity among major financial sub-markets, and constructs a financial composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS) for China, describing its financial systemic stress based on 12 basic indicators selected from the money market, bond market, stock market, and foreign exchange market. Furthermore, drawing on the decomposition and integration technology in the TEI@I complex system research methodology, this paper introduces advanced variational mode decomposition (VMD) technology and extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithms, constructing the VMD-DE-ELM hybrid model to predict the systemic risk of China’s financial market. According to e RMSE , e MAE , and e MAPE , the prediction model’s multistep-ahead forecasting effect is evaluated. The empirical results show that the China’s financial CISS constructed in this paper can effectively identify all kinds of risk events in the sample range. The results of a robustness test show that the overall trend of China’s financial CISS and its ability to identify risk events are not affected by parameter selection and have good robustness. In addition, compared with the benchmark model, the VMD-DE-ELM hybrid model constructed in this paper shows superior predictive ability for systemic financial risk.

Cerebral and Systemic Stress Parameters in Correlation with Jugulo-Arterial CO2 Gap as a Marker of Cerebral Perfusion during Carotid Endarterectomy

Intraoperative stress is common to patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA); thus, impaired oxygen and metabolic balance may appear. In this study, we aimed to identify new markers of intraoperative cerebral ischemia, with predictive value on postoperative complications during CEA, performed in regional anesthesia. A total of 54 patients with significant carotid stenosis were recruited and submitted to CEA. Jugular and arterial blood samples were taken four times during operation, to measure the jugulo-arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure difference (P(j-a)CO2), and cortisol, S100B, L-arginine, and lactate levels. A positive correlation was found between preoperative cortisol levels and all S100B concentrations. In addition, they are positively correlated with P(j-a)CO2 values. Conversely, postoperative cortisol inversely correlates with P(j-a)CO2 and postoperative S100B values. A negative correlation was observed between maximum systolic and pulse pressures and P(j-a)CO2 after carotid clamp and before the release of clamp. Our data suggest that preoperative cortisol, S100B, L-arginine reflect patients’ frailty, while these parameters postoperatively are influenced by intraoperative stress and injury. As a novelty, P(j-a)CO2 might be an emerging indicator of cerebral blood flow during CEA.

A plastidial retrograde-signal potentiates biosynthesis of systemic stress response activators

Plants employ an array of intricate and hierarchical signaling cascades to perceive and transduce informational cues to synchronize and tailor adaptive responses. Systemic stress response (SSR) is a recognized complex signaling and response network quintessential to plant's local and distal responses to environmental triggers, however, the identity of the initiating signals has remained fragmented. Here, we show that both biotic (aphids and viral pathogens) and abiotic (high light and wounding) stresses induce accumulation of the plastidial-retrograde-signaling metabolite, methylerythritol cyclodiphosphate (MEcPP), leading to reduction of the phytohormone, auxin, and the subsequent decreased expression of the phosphatase, PP2C.D1. This enables phosphorylation of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK3/6), and the consequential induction of the downstream events ultimately resulting in biosynthesis of the two SSR priming metabolites, pipecolic- and N-hydroxy-pipecolic acid. This work identifies plastids as the initiation site, and the plastidial retrograde-signal, MEcPP as the initiator of a multi-component signaling cascade potentiating the biosynthesis of SSR activators, in response to biotic and abiotic triggers.

Integrating multiple single-cell phenotypes links stress acclimation to prior life history in yeast

Stress defense and cell growth are inversely related in bulk culture analyses; however, these studies do not capture cellular heterogeneity, thus obscuring true phenotypic relationships. Here, we devised a microfluidics system to characterize multiple phenotypes in single yeast cells responding dynamically to stress. We simultaneously followed cell and colony growth, cell size and volume, and cell-cycle phase plus nuclear trans-localization of two transcription factors: stress-responsive activator Msn2 and repressor Dot6 that are co-regulated during stress. Coordinated activation reflects a systemic stress response, whereas decoupled behavior indicates factor-specific responses. We scored these features before, during, and after salt stress. Modeling of multi-cell phenotypes revealed surprising new information, including unexpected discordance between Msn2 and Dot6 behavior that revealed subpopulations of cells with distinct growth properties. Although past work connected Msn2 activation to growth rate, we instead found stronger correlations with Dot6 behavior. Post-stress growth rate could be partly predicted by integrating multiple cellular phenotypes, with higher accuracy than considering any single feature alone. Our results underscore that life-history experiences partially predict how cells will respond to stress.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PRESSURE CONTROLLED AND VOLUME CONTROLLED VENTILATION ON RESPIRATORY MECHANICS, HAEMODYNAMICS AND SYSTEMIC STRESS RESPONSE IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING SURGERY IN PRONE POSITION.

BACKGROUND: General Anaesthesia in prone position is related with increased airway pressure, decreased pulmonary and thoracic compliance. AIM: Comparision of pressure controlled and volume controlled ventilation in patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery in prone position.METHODS: After ethics committee approval & written informed consent, a comparative randomized interventional study was conducted from July-December 2017. Randomization was done using random number tables. Patients of either sex, ASA grade I&II, age 25-55 yrs were included while those with severe pulmonary ,cardiovascular, endocrine disease & BMI> 30kg/m2 were excluded. Patients were randomly assigned to VCV group (n = 30), or PCV group (n = 30). Haemodynamic (HR,SBP,DBP,MAP), Respiratory (P-Peak,P-mean,C-dyn) variables,blood glucose,S.cortisol were measured and ABG analysis was done 10 minutes after intubation (T1), 30 minutes after prone positioning(T2) and 60 minuts after extubation(T3). RESULTS: Demographic parameters , perioperative hemodynamic values were comparable with no significant statistical difference.The P-Peak levels were lower and dynamic compliance was higher in PCV group during both T1 and T2 with p value of less than 0.05 Postoperative PaO2 level was significantly higher in Group PCV compared with Group VCV.The difference between post operative and preoperative serum cortisol and blood glucose levels was significantly less in patients ventilated with PCV mode.CONCLUSION: According to our study,PCV mode is associated with lower P-peak levels during prone position, better oxygenation postoperatively and lesser systemic stress response.We concluded that PCV mode might be more appropriate in prone position surgeries.

Human Platelet Mitochondrial Function Reflects Systemic Mitochondrial Alterations: A Protocol for Application in Field Studies

Human blood cells may offer a minimally invasive strategy to study systemic alterations of mitochondrial function. Here we tested the reliability of a protocol designed to study mitochondrial respiratory control in human platelets (PLTs) in field studies, using high-resolution respirometry (HRR). Several factors may trigger PLT aggregation during the assay, altering the homogeneity of the cell suspension and distorting the number of cells added to the two chambers (A, B) of the Oroboros Oxygraph-2k (O2k). Thus, inter-chamber variability (∆ab) was calculated by normalizing oxygen consumption to chamber volume (JO2) or to a specific respiratory control state (flux control ratio, FCR) as a reliable parameter of experimental quality. The method’s reliability was tested by comparing the ∆ab of laboratory-performed experiments (LAB, N = 9) to those of an ultramarathon field study (three sampling time-points: before competition (PRE, N = 7), immediately after (POST, N = 10) and 24 h after competition (REC; N = 10)). Our results show that ∆ab JO2 changed PRE-POST, but also for LAB-POST and LAB-REC, while all ∆ab FCR remained unchanged. Thus, we conclude that our method is reliable for assessing PLT mitochondrial function in LAB and field studies and after systemic stress conditions.

Developmental Dyslexia: Environment Matters

Developmental dyslexia (DD) is a multifactorial, specific learning disorder. Susceptibility genes have been identified, but there is growing evidence that environmental factors, and especially stress, may act as triggering factors that determine an individual’s risk of developing DD. In DD, as in most complex phenotypes, the presence of a genetic mutation fails to explain the broad phenotypic spectrum observed. Early life stress has been repeatedly associated with the risk of multifactorial disorders, due to its effects on chromatin regulation, gene expression, HPA axis function and its long-term effects on the systemic stress response. Based on recent evidence, we discuss the potential role of stress on DD occurrence, its putative epigenetic effects on the HPA axis of affected individuals, as well as the necessity of early and appropriate intervention, based on the individual stress-associated (endo)phenotype.

A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk, real economic activity, and monetary intervention

The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk, industrial production, and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018. We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables, capturing their global effects, and use a novel econometric technique, namely, smooth local projections. The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy, exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production. The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk. Thus, an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production, although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk. The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check, which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity, thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.