Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Author(s):  
Thales Alves Teodoro ◽  
Michelle Simões Reboita ◽  
Marta Llopart ◽  
Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha ◽  
Moetasim Ashfaq
2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6660-6678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Jones ◽  
Leila M. V. Carvalho

Abstract The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America. This study focuses on the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS: seasonal amplitudes, onset and demise dates, and durations. Changes in the SAMS are investigated with the gridded precipitation, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios [“historical” and high-emission representative concentration pathways (rcp8.5)]. Qualitative comparisons with a previous study indicate that some CMIP5 models have significantly improved their representation of the SAMS relative to their CMIP3 versions. Some models exhibit persistent deficiencies in simulating the SAMS. CMIP5 model simulations for the historical experiment show signals of climate change in South America. While the observational data show trends, the period used is too short for final conclusions concerning climate change. Future changes in the SAMS are analyzed with six CMIP5 model simulations of the rcp8.5 high-emission scenario. Most of the simulations show significant increases in seasonal amplitudes, early onsets, late demises, and durations of the SAMS. The simulations for this scenario project a 30% increase in the amplitude from the current level by 2045–50. In addition, the rcp8.5 scenario projects an ensemble mean decrease of 14 days in the onset and 17-day increase in the demise date of the SAMS by 2045–50. The results additionally indicate lack of spatial agreement in model projections of changes in total wet-season precipitation over South America during 2070–2100. The most consistent CMIP5 projections analyzed here are the increase in the total monsoon precipitation over southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia Hou ◽  
André Bahr ◽  
Jacek Raddatz ◽  
Silke Voigt ◽  
Markus Greule ◽  
...  

Quaternary ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Deininger ◽  
Brittany Marie Ward ◽  
Valdir F. Novello ◽  
Francisco W. Cruz

Here we present an overview of speleothem δ18O records from South America, most of which are available in the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL_v1) database. South American tropical and subtropical speleothem δ18O time series are primarily interpreted to reflect changes in precipitation amount, the amount effect, and consequently history of convection intensity variability of convergence zones such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South America Monsoon System (SAMS). We investigate past hydroclimate scenarios in South America related to the South American Monsoon System in three different time periods: Late Pleistocene, Holocene, and the last two millennia. Precession driven summertime insolation is the main driver of convective variability over the continent during the last 120 kyrs (from present day to 120 kyrs BP), including the Holocene. However, there is a dipole between speleothem δ18O records from western and eastern South America. Records located in the central region of Brazil are weakly affected by insolation-driven variability, and instead are more susceptible to the variability associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Cold episodic events in the Northern Hemisphere, such as Heinrich and Bond Events, and the Little Ice Age, increase the convective activity of the SAMS, resulting in increased precipitation amount in South America.


2016 ◽  
Vol 130 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 233-247
Author(s):  
Sâmia R. Garcia ◽  
Mary T. Kayano ◽  
Alan J. P. Calheiros ◽  
Rita Valéria Andreoli ◽  
Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira de Souza

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1883-1889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Jones ◽  
Leila M. V. Carvalho ◽  
Brant Liebmann

Abstract The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation. This study uses the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System, reforecasts version 2 (CFSRv2), to investigate the skill of probabilistic forecasts of onset and demise dates, duration, and amplitude of SAMS during 1982–2009. A simple index based on the empirical orthogonal function of precipitation anomalies is employed to characterize onsets, demises, durations, and amplitudes of SAMS. The CFSv2 model has useful skill to forecast seasonal changes in SAMS. Probabilistic forecasts of onset and demise dates have 16.5% and 43.3% improvements, respectively, over climatological forecasts. Verification of hindcasts of durations and amplitudes of SAMS shows relatively small biases and root-mean-square errors.


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