Review of uncertainty sources affecting the long-term predictions of space debris evolutionary models

2015 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 51-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.C. Dolado-Perez ◽  
Carmen Pardini ◽  
Luciano Anselmo
1997 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 71-78
Author(s):  
Edwin Wnuk

AbstractTwo aspects of the orbital evolution of space debris – the long-term evolution and the short-term one – are of interest for an exploration of the near- Earth space. The paper presents some results concerning the estimation of the accuracy of predicted positions of Earth-orbiting objects for the short-term: a few revolutions or a time-span interval of a few days. Calculations of predicted positions take into account the influence of an arbitrary number of spherical coefficients of the Earth gravity potential. Differences in predicted positions due to differences in the best contemporary geopotential models (JGM-2, JGM-3 and GRIM4-S4) are estimated with the use of an analytical theory of motion and a numerical integration.


2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1182-1195
Author(s):  
Luc B.M. Sagnières ◽  
Inna Sharf ◽  
Florent Deleflie

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (S310) ◽  
pp. 118-125
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rossi ◽  
Giovanni B. Valsecchi ◽  
Elisa Maria Alessi

AbstractThe future space debris environment will be dominated by the production of fragments coming from massive fragmentations. In order to identify the most relevant parameters influencing the long term evolution of the environment and to assess the criticality of selected space objects in different regions of the circumterrestrial space, a large parametric study was performed. In this framework some indicators were produced to quantify and rank the relevance of selected fragmentations on the long term evolution of the space debris population. Based on the results of the fragmentation studies, a novel analytic index, the Criticality of Spacecraft Index, aimed at ranking the environmental criticality of abandoned objects in LEO, has been devised and tested on a sample population of orbiting objects.


2017 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 97-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentin A. Shuvalov ◽  
Nikolai.B. Gorev ◽  
Nikolai A. Tokmak ◽  
Galina S. Kochubei

1990 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 48-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Della Valle ◽  
M. Calvani

AbstractIn this paper we present the statistical analysis of historical light curves of 8 old novae, performed through a Fourier analysis on ~ 1600 no-equispaced (in the time) observations published by Steavenson between 1921 and 1953. The results seems to support the existence of a semiregular variability on typical timescales of 50d ÷ 100d and amplitude of ~ 0.3 ± 0.1 magnitudes.At present the largest body of data concerning the photometric behaviour of novae at minimum, is due to the pioneering works by Steavenson (1920→1950) and also to Robinson’s compilation (1975) of 33 preeruption lightcurves of novae.Besides testing the evolutionary models, such as the Hibernation Scenario (Shara et al. 1986), the importance of very long term observations of novae at minimum, has been recently pointed out by Bianchini (1987) and Warner (1988) in close connection to the possible detection of solar-type cycles of activity of the secondary. In spite of these considerations an interesting body of ~ 1000 homogenous observations of 5 posteruption lightcurves provided by Steavenson between 1920 to 1950 (published on M.N.R.A.S) has been neglected and only recently recovered (Delia Valle 1988).The aim of our analysis is:a)to verify possible presence of Dwarf Nova activityb)to confirm on the basis of a larger sample of objects, the existence of semiregular variability as observed in Q Cyg 1876 (Shugarov 1983) and v841 Oph (Della Valle and Rosino 1987).In this contribute we present only the preliminary results of our Fourier’s analysis, performed by adopting the procedure suggested by Deeming (1975) to analyse data taken at unequally spaced time intervals, whereas a more complete analysis will be presented in a forthcoming paper.


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