Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge
leaders on damages caused by windstorms. However, new opportunities
have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe
through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm
Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how
modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We
describe and use two windstorm risk models: an insurer's proprietary model
and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the
annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar–Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessment of rare events, such as a 250-year-return-period windstorm causing CHF 75 million in damages, including an evaluation of the uncertainties. Our study emphasizes the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open-source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.
Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland
