scholarly journals Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Welker ◽  
Thomas Röösli ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Information Service ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge leaders on damages caused by e.g. windstorms. However, new opportunities have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We describe and use two windstorm risk models: the insurer's proprietary model and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully-built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar/Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessing rare events, such as a 250-year return period windstorm causing CHF 75 million damages. Our study emphasises the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.

scholarly journals Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-299
Author(s):  
Christoph Welker ◽  
Thomas Röösli ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Information Service ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge leaders on damages caused by windstorms. However, new opportunities have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We describe and use two windstorm risk models: an insurer's proprietary model and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar–Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessment of rare events, such as a 250-year-return-period windstorm causing CHF 75 million in damages, including an evaluation of the uncertainties. Our study emphasizes the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open-source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.

scholarly journals Developing a Coupling Model System of Global Rainfall Data and Open-Source Model for Water Forecast in Poorly Gauged Basins

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duong Du Bui ◽  
Duc Minh Tran ◽  
Huong Thi Vu ◽  
Nuong Thi Bui
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Coupling Model ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Creative Commons ◽  
Set Up ◽  
User Friendly

Water security is under severe pressures from human interventions and climate change in all over the world and improved water forecast is essential for water management. HYPE is a semi-distributed hydrographic model, running on Windows or Linux operating systems. The code of the model is written by the Fortran programming language and open source as Lesser GNU Public License. HYPE has been becoming a widely used tool in the forecasting of transboundary flows. However, the application of HYPE encounters many difficulties in processing input data and serving the construction, calibration, and validation of the model. This article introduces the development of the V-HYPE tool that helps a couple of global rainfall data and HYPE model for operational use. V-HYPE allows developing a user-friendly interface and setting parameters of the HYPE model as well as evaluating errors and transforming and visually displaying the results of the model. Besides, the V-HYPE has the ability to show related maps (i.e. sub-basins, river network, lake, and dams, etc), set up input data, automatically download global rainfall data, and visually display results on WebGIS. V-HYPE also can generate bulletins supporting for operational water resources warning and forecasting works in Vietnam. The utilities of this tool are demonstrated in the case study of Serepok river basin.This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited.

scholarly journals Runtime translation of OCL-like statements on Simulink models: Expanding domains and optimising queries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz A. Sanchez ◽  
Athanasios Zolotas ◽  
Horacio Hoyos Rodriguez ◽  
Dimitris Kolovos ◽  
Richard F. Paige ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Model Management ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Domain Specific ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Simulink Model ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
The Cost

AbstractOpen-source model management frameworks such as OCL and ATL tend to focus on manipulating models built atop the Eclipse Modelling Framework (EMF), a de facto standard for domain specific modelling. MATLAB Simulink is a widely used proprietary modelling framework for dynamic systems that is built atop an entirely different technical stack to EMF. To leverage the facilities of open-source model management frameworks with Simulink models, these can be transformed into an EMF-compatible representation. Downsides of this approach include the synchronisation of the native Simulink model and its EMF representation as they evolve; the completeness of the EMF representation, and the transformation cost which can be crippling for large Simulink models. We propose an alternative approach to bridge Simulink models with open-source model management frameworks that uses an “on-the-fly” translation of model management constructs into MATLAB statements. Our approach does not require an EMF representation and can mitigate the cost of the upfront transformation on large models. To evaluate both approaches we measure the performance of a model validation process with Epsilon (a model management framework) on a sample of large Simulink models available on GitHub. Our previous results suggest that, with our approach, the total validation time can be reduced by up to 80%. In this paper, we expand our approach to support the management of Simulink requirements and dictionaries, and we improve the approach to perform queries on collections of model elements more efficiently. We demonstrate the use of the Simulink requirements and dictionaries with a case study and we evaluate the optimisations on collection queries with an experiment that compares the performance of a set of queries on models with different sizes. Our results suggest an improvement by up to 99% on some queries.

Using Wireline Formation Tester Pressure Survey to Validate and Fine-tune Model Building: A Case Study for a Multi-layered Mature Reservoir

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. I. Badusha ◽  
A. M. Qamber ◽  
S. Al-Rashdan ◽  
A. Safar ◽  
A. Mahato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Building ◽  
Fine Tune

Investigation of a New Approach to Predict Water Quality Extremes with a Case Study of Chemical Determinands in Stream Water

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
A. J. Jakeman ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. Robson ◽  
J. A. Taylor ◽  
J. Bai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Modelling Approach

The paper illustrates analysis of the assumptions of the statistical component of a hybrid modelling approach for predicting environmental extremes. This shows how to assess the applicability of the approach to water quality problems. The analysis involves data on stream acidity from the Birkenes catchment in Norway. The modelling approach is hybrid in that it uses: (1) a deterministic or process-based description to simulate (non-stationary) long term trend values of environmental variables, and (2) probability distributions which are superimposed on the trend values to characterise the frequency of shorter term concentrations. This permits assessment of management strategies and of sensitivity to climate variables by adjusting the values of major forcing variables in the trend model. Knowledge of the variability about the trend is provided by: (a) identification of an appropriate parametric form of the probability density function (pdf) of the environmental attribute (e.g. stream acidity variables) whose extremes are of interest, and (b) estimation of pdf parameters using the output of the trend model.

Performance Comparison of Web Backend And Database: A Case Study Of Node.JS, Golang and MySQL, MongoDB

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faried Effendy ◽  
Taufik ◽  
Bramantyo Adhilaksono
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Mobile Application ◽  
Web Applications ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Memory Usage ◽  
Data Traffic ◽  
Cpu Utilization

: Substantial research has been conducted to compare web servers or to compare databases, but very limited research combines the two. Node.js and Golang (Go) are popular platforms for both web and mobile application back-ends, whereas MySQL and Go are among the best open source databases with different characters. Using MySQL and MongoDB as databases, this study aims to compare the performance of Go and Node.js as web applications back-end regarding response time, CPU utilization, and memory usage. To simulate the actual web server workload, the flow of data traffic on the server follows the Poisson distribution. The result shows that the combination of Go and MySQL is superior in CPU utilization and memory usage, while the Node.js and MySQL combination is superior in response time.

scholarly journals Internal risk financing with special reference to contingency funds

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-288
Author(s):  
F. J. Mostert
Keyword(s):  
Special Reference ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Equity Financing ◽  
Holding Companies ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Operating Profit ◽  
Physical Risk ◽  
Current Operating ◽  
Modelling Approach

Enterprises can manage risks in two fundamental ways, namely by physical risk control and by risk financing. The latter comprises external and internal risk financing. As this paper focuses on the latter of these concepts, due attention is paid to the main forms of internal risk financing. Charging losses to current operating profit, arranging loan facilities and implementing equity financing programmes are different forms of internal risk financing. The nature, advantages and various types of captive insurance companies are considered as holding companies can utilise this form of internal risk financing. Special attention is paid to the use of contingency funds as a way of internal risk financing by applying a modelling approach. The conclusions reached should be valuable to business enterprises in particular, but also to non-profit organisations and individuals.

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