The time-varying responses of financial intermediation and inflation to oil supply and demand shocks in the US: Evidence from Bayesian TVP-SVAR-SV approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 105535
Author(s):  
Talel Boufateh ◽  
Zied Saadaoui
Keyword(s):  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand Shocks ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S94-S137 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Maria del Rio-Chanona ◽  
Penny Mealy ◽  
Anton Pichler ◽  
François Lafond ◽  
J Doyne Farmer
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Production Network ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
First Order ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Supply And Demand Shocks ◽  
Congressional Budget Office ◽  
The Us ◽  
Occupation Level

Abstract We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy’s GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks—we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (7) ◽  
pp. 1617-1644 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOCHEN H. F. GÜNTNER ◽  
KATHARINA LINSBAUER
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand Shocks

scholarly journals The Response of G7 Real Exchange Rates to Oil Price Shocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 191
Author(s):  
Moayad H. Al Rasasi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks

This paper evaluates the response of G7 real exchange rates to oil supply and demand shocks developed by Kilian (2009). We find evidence suggesting that oil shocks are associated with the appreciation (depreciation) of real exchange rates for oil exporting (importing) countries. Further evidence, based on the analysis of forecast error variance decomposition, indicates that oil-specific demand shocks are the main contributor to variation in real exchange rates, whereas oil supply shocks contribute the least. Finally, regarding the role of monetary policy in responding to oil and exchange rate shocks, we find evidence showing monetary policy reacts only to oil-specific demand and aggregate demand shocks in three countries, whereas monetary policy responds to real exchange rate fluctuations in four countries.

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