Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”

Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets (a review)

Financial Analysts Journal ◽

10.2469/faj.v62.n6.4359 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 62 (6) ◽

pp. 100-101

Author(s):

Martin S. Fridson

Keyword(s):

Information Efficiency ◽

Betting Markets

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Herding in Imperfect Betting Markets with Inside Traders

The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics ◽

10.5750/jgbe.v2i2.528 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 1-16 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Adi Schnytzer ◽

Avichai Snir

Keyword(s):

Strong Evidence ◽

Weak Sense ◽

Imperfect Markets ◽

Herding Behavior ◽

Inside Information ◽

Risky Assets ◽

Betting Markets

Herding is often considered as a phenomenon that drives prices of risky assets away from their equilibrium levels. In this paper we study the on-course UK and Australian horse betting markets. These are simple examples of imperfect markets for state-contingent assets. We provide strong evidence of herding behavior and show that the effects of herding are occasionally sufficient to render the markets inefficient even in the weak sense. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that traders with inside information are not always able to arbitrage away the effects of herding.

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Sports Betting and The Black-Litterman Model: A New Portfolio-Management Perspective

International Journal of Sport Finance ◽

10.32731/ijsf/164.112021.02 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Isabel Abinzano ◽

Maria Jesus Campion ◽

Luis Muga ◽

Armajac Raventós-Pujol

Keyword(s):

Portfolio Management ◽

Sports Betting ◽

Google Trends ◽

Management Model ◽

Market Prices ◽

Management Models ◽

Management Perspective ◽

Portfolio Manager ◽

Betting Markets

This paper transfers and adapts the Black-Litterman portfolio management model and its subsequent generalizations to the characteristics and specificities of assets quoted on sports betting markets. The results show that these assets are suitable for the application of portfolio management models with the possible inclusion of investors’ opinions. Information based on the variability of market prices and the attention received by NBA teams in Google Trends is successfully used to simulate the opinions expressed by a hypothetical portfolio manager. Furthermore, the assets are suitable for inclusion in portfolios in which managers are seeking returns uncorrelated with other assets.

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Efficiency in NFL Betting Markets

10.1142/9789811250217_0012 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 153-165

Author(s):

Leonard C. MacLean ◽

William T. Ziemba

Keyword(s):

Betting Markets

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Taking a Gamble

10.1093/oso/9780198869023.003.0007 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 125-142

Author(s):

Andrew C. A. Elliott

Keyword(s):

Human Activity ◽

Horse Racing ◽

Degree Of Belief ◽

Interpretation Of Probability ◽

Betting Markets ◽

History Of

Gambling is an ancient human activity. We indulge ourselves by allowing ourselves to experience the dangers and thrills of chance in a somewhat controlled way. The history of lotteries and related games is explored. The chances of drawing various poker hands are laid out. The role of probability in horse racing is described, and how the odds quoted are not strictly statements of probability, but terms on which business is to be done. Political prediction betting markets give us a further interpretation of probability as a way of expressing strength of opinion in a quantifiable, albeit flawed way. Wagers encourage boasters to put their money where their mouth is, and so to quantify their degree of belief.

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Using statistics to detect match fixing in sport

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics ◽

10.1093/imaman/dpz008 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 431-449 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

David Forrest ◽

Ian G McHale

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Forecasting Models ◽

Forensic Statistics ◽

Final Assessment ◽

The World ◽

Betting Markets ◽

Betting Odds

AbstractMatch fixing is a growing threat to the integrity of sport, facilitated by new online in-play betting markets sufficiently liquid to allow substantial profits to be made from manipulating an event. Screens to detect a fix employ in-play forecasting models whose predictions are compared in real-time with observed betting odds on websites around the world. Suspicions arise where model odds and market odds diverge. We provide real examples of monitoring for football and tennis matches and describe how suspicious matches are investigated by analysts before a final assessment of how likely it was that a fix took place is made. Results from monitoring driven by this application of forensic statistics have been accepted as primary evidence at cases in the Court of Arbitration for Sport, leading more sports outside football and tennis to adopt this approach to detecting and preventing manipulation.

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