scholarly journals Herding in Imperfect Betting Markets with Inside Traders

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adi Schnytzer ◽  
Avichai Snir
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Weak Sense ◽  
Imperfect Markets ◽  
Herding Behavior ◽  
Inside Information ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Betting Markets

Herding is often considered as a phenomenon that drives prices of risky assets away from their equilibrium levels. In this paper we study the on-course UK and Australian horse betting markets. These are simple examples of imperfect markets for state-contingent assets. We provide strong evidence of herding behavior and show that the effects of herding are occasionally sufficient to render the markets inefficient even in the weak sense. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that traders with inside information are not always able to arbitrage away the effects of herding.

DO GAMBLERS CORRECTLY PRICE MOMENTUM IN NBA BETTING MARKETS?

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Arkes
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Market Inefficiencies ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
New Information ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Profit Opportunity

There is little research on whether new information is correctly synthesized in prediction markets.  Previous studies have found evidence consistent with, but have not proved, gambler misperceptions on the existence of momentum effects in the NBA.  I use novel momentum measures that, unlike prior studies, incorporate the strengths of the opponent and the wins (or losses).  With these measures, I test whether gamblers correctly synthesize information on momentum in the NBA.  Contrary to previous studies, I find strong evidence for the existence of a momentum effect.  Furthermore, gamblers incorporate momentum into their beliefs on the game outcomes.  Gamblers, however, significantly overstate the importance of momentum. But, there is little evidence that the extent of this gambler misperception is large enough to generate market inefficiencies, or profit opportunity.  Still, the gambler mis-pricing of the information has implications for how well new information is synthesized in other types of prediction markets.

Time-Varying Herding Behavior, Global Financial Crisis, and the Chinese Stock Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Sunila Sharma ◽  
Paresh Narayan ◽  
Kannan Thuraisamy
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Herding Behavior

In this paper, we examine the evidence of herding behavior on the Chinese stock market. Our main findings are as follows. First, we find strong evidence of herding behavior on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Second, we document evidence of asymmetric herding behavior with greater magnitude of herding behavior on up markets than on down markets. Third, our findings suggest that herding behavior is sector-specific and predominant in the industrial and properties sectors. Finally, we unravel strong evidence suggesting that herding behavior is time-varying and in some sectors time-varying herding behavior is more prevalent than in other sectors.

Concurrent Electrodermal and Eyeblink Conditioning With Masked and Unmasked Stimuli

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
José Luis Marcos ◽  
Azahara Marcos
Keyword(s):  
Unconditioned Stimulus ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Eyeblink Conditioning ◽  
Noise Burst ◽  
Conditioning Phase ◽  
Contingency Awareness ◽  
Blank Screen ◽  
Neutral Face ◽  
Fearful Face

Abstract. The aim of this study was to determine if contingency awareness between the conditioned (CS) and unconditioned stimulus (US) is necessary for concurrent electrodermal and eyeblink conditioning to masked stimuli. An angry woman’s face (CS+) and a fearful face (CS−) were presented for 23 milliseconds (ms) and followed by a neutral face as a mask. A 98 dB noise burst (US) was administered 477 ms after CS+ offset to elicit both electrodermal and eyeblink responses. For the unmasking conditioning a 176 ms blank screen was inserted between the CS and the mask. Contingency awareness was assessed using trial-by-trial ratings of US-expectancy in a post-conditioning phase. The results showed acquisition of differential electrodermal and eyeblink conditioning in aware, but not in unaware participants. Acquisition of differential eyeblink conditioning required more trials than electrodermal conditioning. These results provided strong evidence of the causal role of contingency awareness on differential eyeblink and electrodermal conditioning.

Strong Evidence for the Efficacy of the Relationship in Psychotherapy

PsycCRITIQUES ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (51) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian H. Stagner
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
The Relationship

BLOCKADE OF THE SURGE OF PROLACTIN AT PRO-OESTRUS BY ADMINISTRATION OF ANTI-OESTROGENIC SUBSTANCE, MER-25

1973 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 769-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akira Yokoyama ◽  
Hiroshi Tomogane ◽  
Katuaki Ôta
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand

ABSTRACT A non-steroidal oestrogen antagonist, MER-25, was administered to cycling rats for elucidating the role of oestrogen in the surge of prolactin observed on the afternoon of pro-oestrus (POe). In animals injected with 20 mg of MER-25 intramuscularly on the afternoon (16.30 h) of the first day of dioestrus (D-1), the surge of prolactin was blocked while the level of prolactin on the afternoon of POe of these animals was significantly higher than that of the corresponding controls injected with oil. Ovulation was also blocked in these animals treated with the drug on the afternoon of D-l. On the other hand, treatment on the morning (10.30 h) of the 2nd day of dioestrus failed to prevent not only the surge of prolactin but also ovulation. These observations provide strong evidence for the view that oestrogen is responsible for the surge of prolactin on the afternoon of POe, and that the surge is accompanied by that of LH.

Pricing Risky Assets in Indian Market under Unconditional Value Weighted Method

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Dr. M. Sumathy Dr. M. Sumathy ◽  
◽  
M. Tamilselvan M. Tamilselvan
Keyword(s):  
Indian Market ◽  
Risky Assets

The Sustainable Debts of Philip II

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Drelichman ◽  
Hans-Joachim Voth
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Philip Ii ◽  
Long Run

This chapter addresses the sustainability of debt. A systematic analysis based on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) methodology to evaluate fiscal sustainability shows that Castile was able to service its debts in the long run. While liquidity was scarce during periods of intense warfare, years of relative peace brought large surpluses. The data collected from Castile's annual fiscal accounts produced new yearly series of revenue, military expenditure, short-term debt issues, and short-term debt service. The resulting database spans a full 31-year period—enough to employ modern quantitative techniques. This analysis provides strong evidence that Castile's fiscal position in the second half of the sixteenth century was on a solid footing. The chapter then assesses whether the events that led to major downturns in Castile's financial fortunes could have been anticipated.

Konsep Asbāb Al-Nuzūl Menurut Nashr Hamid Abu Zayd

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-118
Author(s):  
Shidqy Munjin
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
The Relationship

This article aims to examine the concept of asbāb al-nuzul which has been misunderstood by ulama and thus produces misleading conclusions. The results of this study indicate that Abu Zayd's criticism of the established concept of asbāb al-nuzūl in the ‘ulūm Al-Qurān was focused on the problem of the relation between the text and realities. According to him, the study of the first scholars was too focused on the Koran itself and the Prophet's person as the recipient of revelation, but they forgot the community around the Prophet which was the most important element of reality that existed at that time. Whereas for Abu Zayd, the existence of asbāb al-nuzūl is strong evidence to show the relationship and dialectic between text and reality. To elaborate on his conception, Abu Zayd elaborated on four basic problems, namely regarding the reasons for the Al-Qur'an's a gradual descent, the gradual model of decline, the concept of Dalāllah in understanding a verse and its relation to asbāb al-nuzūl and finally on how to determine asbāb al-nuzūl.

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