Deficits and crowding out through private loan spreads

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 98-107
Author(s):  
Jang Ping Thia
2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahn Bozanic ◽  
Lin Cheng ◽  
Tzachi Zach

In this study, we seek to understand whether soft information conveyed by contracting language found in private loan agreements is informative regarding borrower risk. We proxy for credit-risk-relevant soft information using Loughran and McDonald’s uncertainty measure. We first examine initial contract terms and find that, incremental to traditional summary measures of credit risk, increased contractual uncertainty is associated with higher initial loan spreads and a greater likelihood of using dynamic and performance-pricing covenants. We then turn to examine realized credit risk over the life of the loan and find that increased uncertainty is associated with a higher likelihood of future loan downgrades and loan amendments. We corroborate our results on the risk relevance of soft information by showing that the bid-ask spreads of loans trading on the secondary loan market are increasing in uncertainty. Overall, the evidence we provide is consistent with embedded linguistic cues in loan agreements publicly revealing the credit risk assessments of privately informed lenders.


INFO ARTHA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-84
Author(s):  
Corry Wulandari ◽  
Nadezhda Baryshnikova

In 2005 the Government of Indonesia introduced an unconditional cash transfer program called the ‘Bantuan Langsung Tunai’ (BLT), aimed at assisting poor people who were suffering from the removal of a fuel subsidy. There are concerns, however, that the introduction of a public transfer system can negatively affect inter-household transfers through the crowding-out effect, which exists when donor households reduce the amount of their transfers in line with public transfers received from the government. The poor may not therefore have received any meaningful impact from the public cash transfer, as they potentially receive fewer transfers from inter-household private donors. For the government to design a public transfer system, it is necessary to properly understand the dynamics of private transfer behaviour. Hence, this study evaluates whether there exists a crowding-out effect of public transfers on inter-household transfers in Indonesia.Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) and by applying Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) and Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches, this study found that the likelihood to receive transfers from other family members (non-co-resident) reduces when the household receives BLT. However, there is no significant impact of BLT on transfers from parents and friends.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Barros ◽  
Steffen Hoernig ◽  
Tore Nilssen
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