Blockchain Based Optimal Decision Making Of Dispatchable Units In Smart Grids Considering The High Uncertainty Effects

2021 ◽  
pp. 103418
Author(s):  
Xiangqian Zhu ◽  
Wenfeng Wang ◽  
Suhong Pang ◽  
Chaoyin An ◽  
Xiaoliang Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
High Uncertainty

scholarly journals Five Steps Towards Avoiding Narrative Traps in Decision-Making

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Dolan ◽  
Amanda Henwood
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Uncertain Environment ◽  
Simple Rules ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Dominant Narratives ◽  
The Impact ◽  
High Uncertainty

Narratives provide simple rules about how we ought to live and what our priorities ought to be. They are especially appealing in times of high uncertainty. Using the uncertainty surrounding Covid-19 as an illustration, we show how a narrative to preserve life has become dominant, and we illustrate how it has been reinforced by several behavioural biases. We argue that being able to identify and critically evaluate the impact of dominant narratives is vital to ensuring optimal decision-making. To facilitate this, we offer five recommendations—the ABCDE of decision-making—that can help to reduce the “narrative trap” in decision-making in any uncertain environment.

scholarly journals GEAR: On Optimal Decision Making with Auxiliary Data

Stat ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengrui Cai ◽  
Rui Song ◽  
Wenbin Lu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Auxiliary Data ◽  
Optimal Decision Making

Operation decision of logistics service supply chain: considering interruption probability in emergencies

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangsheng Zhang ◽  
Xiao Wang ◽  
Zhiqing Meng ◽  
Qirui Zhang ◽  
Kexin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Logistics Service ◽  
Social Reputation ◽  
Punishment Intensity ◽  
Optimal Decision Making

PurposeTo remedy the inherent defect in current research that focuses only on a single type of participants, this paper endeavors to look into the situation as an evolutionary game between a representative Logistics Service Integrator (LSI) and a representative Functional Logistics Service Provider (FLSP) in an environment with sudden crisis and tries to analyze how LSI supervises FLSP's operations and how FLSP responds in a recurrent pattern with different interruption probabilities.Design/methodology/approachRegarding the risks of supply chain interruption in emergencies, this paper develops a two-level model of single LSI and single FLSP, using Evolutionary Game theory to analyze their optimal decision-making, as well as their strategic behaviors on different risk levels regarding the interruption probability to achieve the optimal return with bounded rationality.FindingsThe results show that on a low-risk level, if LSI increases the degree of punishment, it will fail to enhance FLSP's operational activeness in the long term; when the risk rises to an intermediate level, a circular game occurs between LSI and FLSP; and on a high level of risk, FLSP will actively take actions, and its functional probability further impacts LSI's strategic choices. Finally, this paper analyzes the moderating impact of punishment intensity and social reputation loss on the evolutionary model in emergencies and provides relevant managerial implications.Originality/valueFirst, by taking both interruption probability and emergencies into consideration, this paper explores the interactions among the factors relevant to LSI's and FLSP's optimal decision-making. Second, this paper analyzes the optimal evolutionary game strategies of LSI and FLSP with different interruption probability and the range of their optimal strategies. Third, the findings of this paper provide valuable implications for relevant practices, such that the punishment intensity and social reputation loss determine the optimal strategies of LSI and FLSP, and thus it is an effective vehicle for LSSC system administrator to achieve the maximum efficiency of the system.

An optimal decision making model for supporting week hospital management

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domenico Conforti ◽  
Francesca Guerriero ◽  
Rosita Guido ◽  
Marco Matucci Cerinic ◽  
Maria Letizia Conforti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Hospital Management ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model
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