Short-term prediction of the aggregated power output of wind farms—a statistical analysis of the reduction of the prediction error by spatial smoothing effects

2002 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
pp. 231-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Focken ◽  
Matthias Lange ◽  
Kai Mönnich ◽  
Hans-Peter Waldl ◽  
Hans Georg Beyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Spatial Smoothing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Smoothing Effects ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power Output Based on Markov Chain

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 1789-1795
Author(s):  
De Xin Li ◽  
Xiang Yu Lv ◽  
Zhi Hui Song
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Wind power short-term predicting technology has a great significance in process of wind power decision-making. Recent years, the technology had been studied extensively in industry. Markov chain model has strong adaptability, forecast accuracy higher and other else advantages, which is suitable for wind power short-term prediction. This paper have set up one step Markov prediction model and based on which predicting short-term wind power output, and taken the historical power data of an actual wind farm in Jilin Province as an example to simulate and analyze. The paper also have proposed and used RMSE, MXPE, MAPE error analysis indicators to analyze simulation results of different status spaces. The results showed that when the status space is 60 the prediction accuracy of the method is best.

Development of a Technique for Short-Term Prediction of Hydrometeors Using Advection and Physical Forcing.

1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory S. Forbes ◽  
John J. Cahir ◽  
Paul B. Dorian ◽  
Walter D. Lottes ◽  
Kathy Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Physical Forcing ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Short Term Prediction
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