The first order of business in crisis management is figuring out that there is a crisis. Once a brewing crisis is recognized, health officials can organize a coherent response, limit its impact, and even make an early pivot to achieve long-lasting change. Unfortunately, spotting a crisis early is far easier said than done. It’s the rare crisis that announces itself with a phone call 12 hours in advance. Most crises go unnoticed even as clues emerge, lost in the stream of the daily activity of an agency or hidden by biases, assumptions, and wishful thinking. To be successful, officials and their agencies should pursue a proactive strategy to identify crises early. There are three elements of effective crisis detection: spotting signals, pulling in data and assessing the situation, and developing a space and culture to put the pieces of the puzzle together.
