Spatial and temporal patterns of ocean acidification during the end-Permian mass extinction – an Earth system model evaluation

2015 ◽  
pp. 291-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Cui ◽  
Lee R. Kump ◽  
Andy Ridgwell
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction

scholarly journals Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3383-3438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Lisa Bock ◽  
Axel Lauer ◽  
Mattia Righi ◽  
Manuel Schlund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
The Earth ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility. It consists of (1) an easy-to-install, well-documented Python package providing the core functionalities (ESMValCore) that performs common preprocessing operations and (2) a diagnostic part that includes tailored diagnostics and performance metrics for specific scientific applications. Here we describe large-scale diagnostics of the second major release of the tool that supports the evaluation of ESMs participating in CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6). ESMValTool v2.0 includes a large collection of diagnostics and performance metrics for atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables for the mean state, trends, and variability. ESMValTool v2.0 also successfully reproduces figures from the evaluation and projections chapters of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and incorporates updates from targeted analysis packages, such as the NCAR Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for the evaluation of modes of variability, the Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo) to evaluate the energetics of the climate system, as well as parts of AutoAssess that contains a mix of top–down performance metrics. The tool has been fully integrated into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure at the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) to provide evaluation results from CMIP6 model simulations shortly after the output is published to the CMIP archive. A result browser has been implemented that enables advanced monitoring of the evaluation results by a broad user community at much faster timescales than what was possible in CMIP5.

Recent developments on the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bouwe Andela ◽  
Fakhereh Alidoost ◽  
Lukas Brunner ◽  
Jaro Camphuijsen ◽  
Bas Crezee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Scientific Review ◽  
The Earth ◽  
User Friendly

<p>The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a free and open-source community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models such as those participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Version 2 of the tool (Righi et al. 2020, www.esmvaltool.org) features a brand new design composed of a core that finds and processes data according to a ‘recipe’ and an extensive collection of ready-to-use recipes and associated diagnostic codes for reproducing results from published papers. Development and discussion of the tool (mostly) takes place in public on https://github.com/esmvalgroup and anyone with an interest in climate model evaluation is welcome to join there.</p><p> </p><p>Since the initial release of version 2 in the summer of 2020, many improvements have been made to the tool. It is now more user friendly with extensive documentation available on docs.esmvaltool.org and a step by step online tutorial. Regular releases, currently planned three times a year, ensure that recent contributions become available quickly while still ensuring a high level of quality control. The tool can be installed from conda, but portable docker and singularity containers are also available.</p><p> </p><p>Recent new features include a more user-friendly command-line interface, citation information per figure including CMIP6 data citation using ES-DOC, more and faster preprocessor functions that require less memory, automatic corrections for a larger number of CMIP6 datasets, support for more observational and reanalysis datasets, and more recipes and diagnostics.</p><p> </p><p>The tool is now also more reliable, with improved automated testing through more unit tests for the core, as well as a recipe testing service running at DKRZ for testing the scientific recipes and diagnostics that are bundled into the tool. The community maintaining and developing the tool is growing, making the project less dependent on individual contributors. There are now technical and scientific review teams that review new contributions for technical quality and scientific correctness and relevance respectively, two new principal investigators for generating a larger support base in the community, and a newly created user engagement team that is taking care of improving the overall user experience.</p>

scholarly journals ICON‐A, The Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: II. Model Evaluation

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1638-1662 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Crueger ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
R. Brokopf ◽  
M. Esch ◽  
S. Fiedler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System

scholarly journals Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 3633-3648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörg Schwinger ◽  
Jerry Tjiputra ◽  
Nadine Goris ◽  
Katharina D. Six ◽  
Alf Kirkevåg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Dimethyl Sulfide ◽  
Ph Dependence ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract. We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea–air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea–air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

scholarly journals Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for emergent constraints and future projections from Earth system models in CMIP

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4205-4228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Lauer ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Omar Bellprat ◽  
Lisa Bock ◽  
Bettina K. Gier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
System Models ◽  
Emergent Constraints ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for evaluation and analysis of Earth system models (ESMs), is designed to facilitate a more comprehensive and rapid comparison of single or multiple models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ESM results can be compared against observations or reanalysis data as well as against other models including predecessor versions of the same model. The updated and extended version (v2.0) of the ESMValTool includes several new analysis scripts such as large-scale diagnostics for evaluation of ESMs as well as diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, the newly implemented climate metrics such as effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) as well as emergent constraints for various climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future projections from ESMs are described and illustrated with examples using results from the well-established model ensemble CMIP5. The emergent constraints implemented include constraints on ECS, snow-albedo effect, climate–carbon cycle feedback, hydrologic cycle intensification, future Indian summer monsoon precipitation and year of disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice. The diagnostics included in ESMValTool v2.0 to analyze future climate projections from ESMs further include analysis scripts to reproduce selected figures of chapter 12 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and various multi-model statistics.

scholarly journals Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for emergent constraints and future projections from Earth system models in CMIP

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Lauer ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Omar Bellprat ◽  
Lisa Bock ◽  
Bettina K. Gier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
System Models ◽  
Emergent Constraints ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for evaluation and analysis of Earth system models (ESMs) is designed to facilitate a more comprehensive and rapid comparison of single or multiple models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP). The ESM results can be compared against observations or reanalysis data as well as against other models including predecessor versions of the same model. The updated and extended version 2.0 of the ESMValTool includes several new analysis scripts such as large-scale diagnostics for evaluation of ESMs as well as diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, the newly implemented climate metrics such as effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) as well as emergent constraints for various climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future projections from ESMs are described and illustrated with examples using results from the well-established model ensemble CMIP5. The emergent constraints implemented include ECS, snow-albedo effect, climate-carbon cycle feedback, hydrologic cycle intensification, future Indian summer monsoon precipitation, and year of disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice. The diagnostics included in ESMValTool v2.0 to analyze future climate projections from ESMs include analysis scripts to reproduce selected figures of chapter 12 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment report (AR5) and various multi-model statistics.

scholarly journals Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – technical overview

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1179-1199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Righi ◽  
Bouwe Andela ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Axel Lauer ◽  
Valeriu Predoi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Data Volume ◽  
And Performance ◽  
User Friendly

Abstract. This paper describes the second major release of the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to version 1.0, released in 2016, ESMValTool version 2.0 (v2.0) features a brand new design, with an improved interface and a revised preprocessor. It also features a significantly enhanced diagnostic part that is described in three companion papers. The new version of ESMValTool has been specifically developed to target the increased data volume of CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the related challenges posed by the analysis and the evaluation of output from multiple high-resolution or complex ESMs. The new version takes advantage of state-of-the-art computational libraries and methods to deploy an efficient and user-friendly data processing. Common operations on the input data (such as regridding or computation of multi-model statistics) are centralized in a highly optimized preprocessor, which allows applying a series of preprocessing functions before diagnostics scripts are applied for in-depth scientific analysis of the model output. Performance tests conducted on a set of standard diagnostics show that the new version is faster than its predecessor by about a factor of 3. The performance can be further improved, up to a factor of more than 30, when the newly introduced task-based parallelization options are used, which enable the efficient exploitation of much larger computing infrastructures. ESMValTool v2.0 also includes a revised and simplified installation procedure, the setting of user-configurable options based on modern language formats, and high code quality standards following the best practices for software development.

scholarly journals Amplification of global warming through pH-dependence of DMS-production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörg Schwinger ◽  
Jerry Tjiputra ◽  
Nadine Goris ◽  
Katharina Six ◽  
Alf Kirkevåg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Dimethyl Sulfide ◽  
Ph Dependence ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract. We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean-acidification under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS-production to the additional changes in temperature and sea-ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an off-line model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS-production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS-emission are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in short-wave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS-emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS-emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0.041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea-air DMS-fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS-fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

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