Is It Worth Refining Linear Approximations to Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models?

2004 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 343-377
Author(s):  
Alfonso Novales ◽  
Javier J. Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Linear Approximations ◽  
Non Linear

Quantum splines for non-linear approximations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Macaluso ◽  
Luca Clissa ◽  
Stefano Lodi ◽  
Claudio Sartori
Keyword(s):  
Linear Approximations ◽  
Non Linear

Presidents on the cycle: Elections, audience costs, and coercive diplomacy

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Chiozza
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Theory Building ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Electoral Calendar

This study investigates an observable implication of audience cost theory. Building upon rational expectations theories of voters’ choice and foreign policy substitutability theory, it posits that audience costs vary over the electoral calendar. It then assesses whether US presidents’ major responses in international crises reflect the variability in audience costs in an analysis of 66 international crises between 1937 and 2006. Using out-of-sample tests, this study finds that tying-hand commitment strategies were more frequent closer to presidential elections, as expected from audience cost theory. It also finds that the fluctuation of audience costs over the electoral calendar is non-linear.

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