scholarly journals Bayesian sequential testing with expectation constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Stefan Ankirchner ◽  
Maike Klein

We study a stopping problem arising from a sequential testing of two simple hypotheses H0 and H1 on the drift rate of a Brownian motion. We impose an expectation constraint on the stopping rules allowed and show that an optimal stopping rule satisfying the constraint can be found among the rules of the following type: stop if the posterior probability for H1 attains a given lower or upper barrier; or stop if the posterior probability comes back to a fixed intermediate point after a sufficiently large excursion. Stopping at the intermediate point means that the testing is abandoned without accepting H0 or H1. In contrast to the unconstrained case, optimal stopping rules, in general, cannot be found among interval exit times. Thus, optimal stopping rules in the constrained case qualitatively differ from optimal rules in the unconstrained case.

1983 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph D. Petruccelli

We consider the problem of maximizing the probability of choosing the largest from a sequence of N observations when N is a bounded random variable. The present paper gives a necessary and sufficient condition, based on the distribution of N, for the optimal stopping rule to have a particularly simple form: what Rasmussen and Robbins (1975) call an s(r) rule. A second result indicates that optimal stopping rules for this problem can, with one restriction, take virtually any form.


1983 ◽  
Vol 20 (01) ◽  
pp. 165-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph D. Petruccelli

We consider the problem of maximizing the probability of choosing the largest from a sequence of N observations when N is a bounded random variable. The present paper gives a necessary and sufficient condition, based on the distribution of N, for the optimal stopping rule to have a particularly simple form: what Rasmussen and Robbins (1975) call an s(r) rule. A second result indicates that optimal stopping rules for this problem can, with one restriction, take virtually any form.


2004 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 483-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pieter Allaart

Optimal stopping rules are developed for the correlated random walk when future returns are discounted by a constant factor per unit time. The optimal rule is shown to be of dual threshold form: one threshold for stopping after an up-step, and another for stopping after a down-step. Precise expressions for the thresholds are given for both the positively and the negatively correlated cases. The optimal rule is illustrated by several numerical examples.


1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 723-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. K. Yang ◽  
Dennis D. Wackerly ◽  
Andrew Rosalsky

Optimal stopping rules under various conditions are obtained for a proofreader who has a probability p (known or unknown) of detecting a misprint in proofsheets which contain an unknown but Poisson-distributed number of misprints.


2001 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 483-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pieter Allaart ◽  
Michael Monticino

1992 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-615 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Bather

Mathematical models have been proposed for oil exploration and other kinds of search. They can be used to estimate the amount of undiscovered resources or to investigate optimal stopping times for the search. Here we consider a continuous search for hidden objects using a model which represents the number and values of the objects by mixtures of Poisson processes. The flexibility of the model and its complexity depend on the number of components in the mixture. In simple cases, optimal stopping rules can be found explicitly and more general qualitative results can sometimes be obtained.


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