Efficiency forecasting for municipal solid waste recycling in the context on sustainable development of economy

Ukraine’s further economic growth should be directed by Government Sustainable Development Strategy for harmonization of economy, environmental and social protection. One of the important modern problems is pollution by waste. The feasibility of introducing an eco-project for the municipal solid waste recycling is substantiated at the present research. The complex mathematical model of profit forecast is developed, which shows the tariffs influence on profitability of eco-project on construction of the plant for municipal solid waste recycling in Poltava region of Ukraine. The authors determine and analyse the dependences of the expected eco-project revenue from the change in tariffs for waste management services for each of the consumer categories. Two scenarios of economic development (inertial and innovative) are compared and resulted that the both scenarios have environmental and economic effect, so they are investment attractive. Emphasis is placed on the shortcomings and gaps of the existing tariff policy. The paper demonstrates lack of incentives for the development of business recycling under the existing tariff policy, so to establish a single tariff is proposed uniting the services cost for the removal, sorting, processing and disposal of the waste and also without dividing by consumer categories.