The article analyzes the proposed directions (scenarios) of fi ne-tuning of monetary policy of the European Union and the likely consequences of global pandemic volatility. The article also points to the need to continue to reform the European monetary policy, particularly considering the role of the euro in the modern system of international fi nance, the EU debt problems and competition with the U.S. dollar. The widespread prevalence of COVID-19 and the related periods of self-isolation and lockdowns have exacerbated monetary and fi nancial problems even in the world’s leading countries such as the European Union. The solution of monetary problems in its multi-level structure is entrusted to the European Central Bank, which acts as a regional (and at the same time supranational) regulator of the monetary and fi nancial sphere at the system level. The pursued unconventional monetary policy, aimed at getting out of the prolonged recession and defl ation, is facing new challenges, including those of a global nature. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the current situation and identify the real reasons that prevent the achievement of these goals. The author comes to conclusion that they can be classifi ed into external and internal causes, exogenous and endogenous, fundamental and force majeure. However, the coronavirus formally related to the latter, as it seems in view of the onset of the second wave and the projected third, can, to a certain extent, be considered a hybrid one, beginning to exert a comprehensive infl uence, aff ecting all spheres of human activity and certainly monetary and fi nancial sphere as well. Exchange rates are becoming more volatile, and traditional measures to regulate them are no longer eff ective. Consequently, the need to fi nd new approaches to monetary policy, especially for the European Union, with its becoming permanent debt problems, capital under-regulation and unfi nished regional currency digitalization, is becoming increasingly evident.
Is European Monetary Policy Appropriate for the EMU Member Countries? A Counterfactual Analysis
