Forecasting the 2012 French presidential election: Comparing vote function simulations and vote intention polls

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Jerôme ◽  
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vote Function ◽  
Vote Intention

A Le Pen Vote Function for the 2002 Presidential Election: A Way to Reduce Uncertainty

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Jérôme ◽  
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vote Function

Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (02) ◽  
pp. 218-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martial Foucault ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
National Data ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Vote Function ◽  
The Right ◽  
Nicolas Sarkozy

AbstractWho will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the smallNproblem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012.

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Konitzer ◽  
David Rothschild ◽  
Shawndra Hill ◽  
Kenneth C. Wilbur
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Targeted Advertising ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Geographically Targeted

scholarly journals Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Natalie Jackson ◽  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck ◽  
Charles Tien
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Level ◽  
Horse Race ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Probability Sampling ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Us Presidential Election

In recent US presidential elections, there has been considerable focus on how well public opinion can forecast the outcome, and 2016 proved no exception. Pollsters and poll aggregators regularly offered numbers on the horse-race, usually pointing to a Clinton victory, which failed to occur. We argue that these polling assessments of support were misleading for at least two reasons. First, Trump voters were sorely underestimated, especially at the state level of polling. Second, and more broadly, we suggest that excessive reliance on non-probability sampling was at work. Here we present evidence to support our contention, ending with a plea for consideration of other methods of election forecasting that are not based on vote intention polls.

The Influence of Scandal on Vote Intention during Korean Presidential Campaigns

Asian Survey ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 393-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeonghun Min
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Presidential Campaigns ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of the “BBK” scandal on the 2007 Korean presidential election. Voters continue to support the “corrupt” candidate after the scandal, treating it as just one of the determinants for vote choice. The findings show that the implicit trading thesis applies to Korean presidential elections.

The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Johnston ◽  
Michael G. Hagen ◽  
Kathleen Hall Jamieson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Politics
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document