scholarly journals The impact of Hurricanes on the value of commercial real estate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Fisher ◽  
Sara R. Rutledge
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Property Values ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
National Council ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Individual Property ◽  
Property Type ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Property Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCommercial real estate investors prefer coastal, gateway, markets for liquidity, demand density, and durable returns. Yet, these areas are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change from more intense and frequent weather events such as hurricanes and typhoons as well as to gradual changes such as sea-level rise. Recognition is growing of the risks that these events pose to investment performance, but little is known about how this risk has impacted property values and returns when an event such as a hurricane occurs. This is the first study to analyze the impact on property values and returns from hurricanes causing the most significant damage by value over the past 30-plus years throughout the nation. Using individual property data from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries database, we find a significant impact on the value and rates of return, after accounting for any additional capital expenditures for repairs, for properties that are in areas impacted by a hurricane, relative to areas that were not impacted by a hurricane. These impacts vary by property type and can last for several years after the hurricane hit land in the area.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

Does the commercial real estate industry need “more pussy on the block?”

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dustin C. Read
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Gender Bias ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Industry ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Chapter ◽  
Professional Credibility ◽  
The Impact

Purpose In a controversial 2018 interview, commercial real estate mogul Sam Zell insinuated that companies should promote their employees based exclusively on merit and avoid purposefully taking steps to get “more pussy on the block” in the name of gender equality. The comment was criticized not only for its crassness, but also for its failure to recognize the challenges many women working in the commercial real estate industry face in their efforts to obtain the same opportunities, compensation and status as similarly-qualified men. In an effort to overcome these disparities, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the pervasiveness of second-generation gender bias and stereotyping in the field through a qualitative analysis. Design/methodology/approach Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 39 women serving as local chapter presidents of a prominent commercial real estate trade group to explore the impact of gender on their career advancement and their experiences with second-generation gender bias. Findings The findings suggest unintentional discrimination often influences women’s careers by drawing their communication skills, professional credibility and commitment to the organizations for whom they work into question. Originality/value The research contributes to the existing literature by offering additional evidence that unintentional discrimination is common in male-dominated industries, such as commercial real estate. It also provides clear examples of social cues women perceive to heighten tension along gender lines and impinge upon their ability to ascend to leadership positions.

scholarly journals The impact of lease structures on the optimal holding period for a commercial real estate portfolio

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme ◽  
Michel Baroni ◽  
Fabrice Barthélémy ◽  
Mahdi Mokrane
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Specific Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Estate Assets ◽  
Rental Value

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of lease duration and lease break options on the optimal holding period for a real estate asset or portfolio. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a Monte Carlo simulation framework to simulate a real estate asset’s cash flows in which lease structures (rent, indexation pattern, overall lease duration and break options) are explicitly taken into account. The authors assume that a tenant exercises his/her option to break a lease if the rent paid is higher than the market rental value (MRV) of similar properties. The authors also model vacancy duration stochastically. Finally, capital values and MRVs, assumed to be correlated, are simulated using specific stochastic processes. The authors derive the optimal holding period for the asset as the value that maximizes its discounted value. Findings – The authors demonstrate that, consistent with existing capital markets literature and real estate business practice, break options in leases can dramatically alter optimal holding periods for real estate assets and, by extension, portfolios. The paper shows that, everything else being equal, shorter lease durations, higher MRV volatility, increasing negative rental reversion, higher vacancy duration, more break options, all tend to decrease the optimal holding period of a real estate asset. The converse is also true. Practical implications – Practitioners are offered insights as well as a practical methodology for determining the ex-ante optimal holding period for an asset or a portfolio based on a number of market and asset-specific parameters including the lease structure. Originality/value – The originality of the paper derives from its taking an explicit modelling approach to lease duration and lease breaks as additional sources of asset-specific risk alongside market risk. This is critical in real estate portfolio management because such specific risk is usually difficult to diversify.

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