Sukuk Performance Using Comparison of Return and Risk Through Calculation of Market Price and Fair Price

Sukuk investors’ important information used by investors of Sukuk (proof or claim of ownership on assets) is the market price of the Sukuk issued by the IDX and the fair price of the Sukuk issued by the Indonesian Securities Price Appraiser (PHEI). This is a signal or initial information for investors in considering the decision to invest in Sukuk. The measured performance returns as measured by Holding Period Yield (HPY), Yield To Maturity (YTM), and Sharpe Index, while Risk of Sukuk is measured based on its standard deviation. Corporate Sukuk are classified into financial and non-financial sectors and have short, medium, and long maturities. Comparative analysis is conducted using an Independent Sample t-test and ANOVA. The results showed that the average Sukuk return was calculated at a higher market price than the fair price. Sukuk return results in a pattern of movement that tends to be inversely proportional to the market price or fair price of the Sukuk, while the risk of Sukuk based on price issuing institutions had a movement pattern that tends to be in the same direction as the price. Furthermore, corporate Sukuk in the non-financial sector had a higher average return but was more susceptible to risk than the financial sector. Corporate Sukuk with long maturities had a higher average yield and risk exposure than medium and short-term Sukuk. Hypothesis testing showed a significant difference between the market price and the fair price of corporate Sukuk.

RISK ASSESSMENT OF STOCKS PORTFOLIO THROUGH ENSEMBLE ARMA-GARCH AND VALUE AT RISK (CASE STUDY: INDF.JK AND ICBP.JK STOCK PRICE)

Stocks portfolio is a form of investment that can be used to minimize the risk of loss. In a stock portfolio, the Value at Risk (VaR) can be predicted through the portfolio return. If portfolio return variance is heteroskedastic risk prediction can be done by using VaR with ARIMA-GARCH or Ensemble ARIMA-GARCH model approach. Furthermore, the accuracy of VaR is tested through Backtesting test. In this study, the portfolio is formed from PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP.JK) and PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF.JK) stocks from 01/01/2018 to 07/30/2021. The results showed that the best model is Ensemble ARMA-GARCH with MSE 1.3231×10-6. At confidence level of 95% and 1 day holding period, the VaR of the Ensemble ARMA-GARCH was -0.0213. Based on the Backtesting test, it is proven to be very accurate to predict the value of loss risk because the value of the Violation Ratio (VR) is equal to 0.

Robotizing bond portfolio selection on the Russian debt market on the basis of a modified strategy of riding the yield curve

The modern global debt market features historically low average interest rates, convergence of yields on bonds with different maturities, an increase of yield curve inversion emergence frequency and a large-scale trend to automate financial decision making. The researchers’ attention in these fields is mainly focused on designing models that describe the state of the debt market as whole or its individual instruments in particular, as well as on risk management methods. At the same time, the specialized literature offers very few works concerning the topic of computer algorithms for bond portfolio selection based on traditional or advanced investment strategies. The aim of the present research is to create a modification of the existing algorithm of riding the yield curve strategy application, employing, first, average bond yield over the holding period instead of traditional bond yield to maturity; second, a developed algorithm for calculating the market spread on bonds; and, third, alternative risk evaluation indicators (compensation coefficients), which allow us to measure objectively price risk, liquidity risk, transaction costs risk and a general risk. The modification and the development of the algorithm for calculating the market spread were carried out using the direct measurement of the result technique, which entails application of the strategy to the data on bond issues received through the Moscow Exchange API. The selection of financial instruments was conducted in all sectors of the Russian debt market: public bonds, sub-federal and municipal bonds, corporate bonds. The modified algorithm enabled us to get extra yield for each selected bond issue, thereby proving the high effectiveness of the technique compared to the traditional strategy. Software implementation of the algorithm can be integrated into any robotized or semi-robotized stock exchange trading application.

Applying Property Pricing Models to Estimate a Foreclosure Discount in the Hotel Real Estate Sector

This study investigates the magnitude of the foreclosure sale discount in the hotel sector. The foreclosure sales discount is captured using three different models: hedonic, hybrid, and repeat sales. Controlling for various hotel attributes and time, the hedonic model shows a foreclosure discount of 40%, followed by the repeat sales model at 42% and the hybrid model at 45%, all relative to non-distressed market prices. The results of the study provide novel empirical evidence of cross-sectional variation in foreclosure discounts between independent hotels and branded hotel segments and by location. In particular, variation in the foreclosure discount is driven by independent and upscale hotels and hotels located in resorts, small metro towns, and urban locations. In addition, the study results reveal the influence of occupancy, deferred maintenance, renovation, and holding period on transaction prices.

5-HT2C receptor perturbation has bidirectional influence over instrumental vigour and restraint

The serotonin (5-HT) system, particularly the 5-HT2C receptor, has consistently been implicated in behavioural control. However, while some studies have focused on the role 5-HT2C receptors play in regulating motivation to work for reward, others have highlighted its importance in response restraint. To date, it is unclear how 5-HT transmission at this receptor regulates the balance of response invigoration and restraint in anticipation of future reward. In addition, it remains to be established how 5-HT2C receptors gate the influence of internal versus cue-driven processes over reward-guided actions. To elucidate these issues, we investigated the effects of administering the 5-HT2C receptor antagonist SB242084, both systemically and directly into the nucleus accumbens core (NAcC), in rats performing a Go/No-Go task for small or large rewards. The results were compared to the administration of d-amphetamine into the NAcC, which has previously been shown to promote behavioural activation. Systemic perturbation of 5-HT2C receptors—but crucially not intra-NAcC infusions—consistently boosted rats’ performance and instrumental vigour on Go trials when they were required to act. Concomitantly, systemic administration also reduced their ability to withhold responding for rewards on No-Go trials, particularly late in the holding period. Notably, these effects were often apparent only when the reward on offer was small. By contrast, inducing a hyperdopaminergic state in the NAcC with d-amphetamine strongly impaired response restraint on No-Go trials both early and late in the holding period, as well as speeding action initiation. Together, these findings suggest that 5-HT2C receptor transmission, outside the NAcC, shapes the vigour of ongoing goal-directed action as well as the likelihood of responding as a function of expected reward.

The Investigation of the Fracture Behavior of a Chinese 9% Cr Steel Welded Joint under Creep-Fatigue Interactive Loading

To understand the premature-fracture mechanisms of long-term service damage of an advanced alloy’s (Chinese P92 steel) welded joint, the creep-fatigue (CF) experiments with holding times of 30, 120, 300, 600 and 900 s were individually performed at 923 K. The cyclic softening, inelastic-strain amplitudes and stress-relaxation behaviors were compared between welded and base-metal (BM) specimens. From the results, the failure stage of the welded specimens occupies 45% of the lifetime fraction, while it only takes up 20% of the lifetime fraction in BM specimens with short holding times (30 and 120 s). Furthermore, only two softening stages were observed for both kinds of CF specimens with long holding times. The absence of a third softening stage in longer-held specimens indicates that the processes of macroscopic-crack initiation, propagation and rupture were accelerated. Based on the observation of the fracture surfaces, the fracture mechanism shifted from fatigue-dominated damage to creep-fatigue interaction when the holding period was increased.

Performance of commercial and residential real estate investments in Ibadan property market, Nigeria

PurposeThis study examined the performance of commercial and residential real estate investments in the Ibadan property market to provide information for investment decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe study used a mixed research design (qualitative and quantitative). Data were obtained employing in-depth interviews with randomly selected sixteen estate surveyors and valuers practising in the Ibadan property market. Data for the study were analysed using the phenomenological thematic content analysis. Similarly, data on rental and capital values were translated to income, capital and holding period returns. The Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) and Philip–Perron (PP) models were used for unit root analysis. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression model was used to test for inflation-hedging characteristics, and the Granger causality tests were carried out to analyse the causal relationship between the variables.FindingsThe study revealed that the Ibadan property market is still immature. For the return components, the study found that the Ibadan property market provided mean holding period returns of 10.82%, 14.31 and 8.29% for office, shop and residential property types, respectively. The study also revealed that the selected property types are perverse hedges against inflation. Similarly, the study showed a unidirectional causal relationship between inflation and returns on the selected property types.Practical implicationsResults of this study revealed the peculiar nature of the Ibadan property market; findings from the survey can be used as a guide for investment decisions by foreign and domestic investors. Shrewd investors can take advantage of the high returns provided by the real estate assets in the Ibadan property market (by investing in the property market) to obtain high returns and expand their investment portfolio.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine, in an eclectic and comparative context, the performance of commercial and residential properties in the Ibadan property market from the perspective of its market maturity level, returns profile, as well as its inflation-hedging characteristics. Findings from the study will equip both individual and institutional investors with valuable information for investment decisions.

Hybrid quantum investment optimization with minimal holding period

In this paper we propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for dynamic portfolio optimization with minimal holding period. Our algorithm is based on sampling the near-optimal portfolios at each trading step using a quantum processor, and efficiently post-selecting to meet the minimal holding constraint. We found the optimal investment trajectory in a dataset of 50 assets spanning a 1 year trading period using the D-Wave 2000Q processor. Our method is remarkably efficient, and produces results much closer to the efficient frontier than typical portfolios. Moreover, we also show how our approach can easily produce trajectories adapted to different risk profiles, as typically offered in financial products. Our results are a clear example of how the combination of quantum and classical techniques can offer novel valuable tools to deal with real-life problems, beyond simple toy models, in current NISQ quantum processors.

Can the FSCORE add value to anomaly-based portfolios? A reality check in the German stock market

This paper examines the added value of using financial statement information, particularly that of Piotroski’s (J Account Res 38:1, 2000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2672906) FSCORE, for equity portfolio selection in the German stock market in a realistic research setting in which the critique against the implementability of FSCORE-based trading strategies is taken into account. We show that the performance of annually rebalanced long-only portfolios formed on any of the examined 12 accounting-based primary criteria improves by including the FSCORE as a supplementary criterion. Our study is the first to show that although the FSCORE boost is strongest for the 1-year holding period length, it also holds, on average, for the 3-year holding period. The use of a 3-year updating frequency is particularly beneficial for the low-accrual portfolio that—when supplemented with the high-FSCORE threshold—generates the best overall performance among all 75 portfolios examined. Moreover, we show that a high FSCORE is also an efficient stand-alone criterion for long-only portfolio formation.