Developments and convergence of real housing prices in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic: focus on voivodeship capitals

The paper aims to present and assess the changes in real housing prices in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse transaction prices of residential premises in a multi-family housing (apartments) in the primary and secondary markets within 16 administrative capitals of voivodeships. We use quarterly data on House Prices Database collected by the National Bank of Poland and data on quarterly price indices of consumer goods and services from Statistics Poland. The research period covers the period 2018-2021, with distinction into COVID-19- and pre-COVID-19 periods. We observe the highest housing prices in Warszawa, Gdańsk, Kraków, and Wrocław, while the lowest in Zielona Góra and Kielce. Surprisingly, the growth rate in real housing prices in the pandemic sub-period is lower than in corresponding pre-COVID-19 period. In the COVID-19 sub-period, we observe the most significant increases in real estate prices in Zielona Góra and Szczecin in the primary market, and Kraków, Lublin, and Łódź in the secondary market. Additionally, we reveal the existence of regional price convergence in the housing market in analysed cities, both in primary and secondary markets. However, we do not observe a common price convergence, but only convergence clubs (city-groups) where the housing prices tend to converge in the COVID-19 sub-period.

The United Kingdom’s exposure to corruption is rising

Significance This reflects long-standing dynamics linked to the United Kingdom’s role in facilitating illicit global financial flows. In addition, recent political developments under Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government have fuelled the perception that UK rule of law standards are declining. Impacts Surging real estate prices and increasing wealth inequality facilitate money laundering. Academic freedom in the United Kingdom is potentially impacted by the increase in private donations to universities. The ruling Conservative Party is particularly vulnerable to charges of corruption, given its reliance on private funding.

Revisiting the Urban Question in the Age of the New Urban Crisis: The (Re)Production of the Regime of Flexible Accumulation

Scholars have recently remarked upon the emergence of what Richard Florida has termed The New Urban Crisis, a global phenomenon whereby cities are being lumped into winners and losers, with inequality rising in the winner cities where real estate prices are pushing out those who most need access to the opportunities hoarded within. In this article, I argue that the new urban crisis is not a crisis of the city per se but is itself a symptom of greater crises occurring at the level of global capitalism. By revisiting Castells’ The Urban Question, I read the new urban crisis as a product of how the urban social structure fits into the reproduction of capitalism on a global scale, arguing that, under the regime of flexible accumulation, the urban social structure is asked to reproduce two distinct circuits of capital accumulation set loose by the transition to post-industrialism: accumulation via production and accumulation via finance. These distinct circuits of accumulation utilize the elements of urban social structures differentially, often at cross purposes. This produces continued crises in the reproduction of capitalism, as well as continually shifting relations between elements of the urban social structure, producing a plurality of urban forms.

Analysis of Urban Residents' Sports Consumption Demand Based on Intercepted Regression Model

At this stage, broadening the consumer market, upgrading the consumption system and gradually establishing a consumption-led development concept are key factors in promoting high-quality economic development. At the same time, China's macro economy is also experiencing another test. The rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years has attracted a large number of investors, and real estate prices have produced irrational and substantial increases. Behind the boom of the real estate market is a social system crisis driven by profiteering and the growing seriousness of real estate financial bubble. So exploring the mechanism of the influence of real estate prices on the upgrading of residents' consumption is important for the current stage of China. Therefore, it is important to investigate the mechanism of real estate price impact on consumer upgrading for the coordinated development of real estate industry and national economy. In this paper, we analyze and examine the theory on the consumption improvement by the literature survey method. We also summarize the present research on the correlation and the influence mechanism of the real estate price and the consumption improvement and choose the index which reflects the present state of the real estate industry and the consumption of the inhabitant. Besides the input indicators that qualitatively manage the impact of housing prices on the improvement of residents' consumption, we first use the descriptive statistics method to understand the level of the Chinese real estate market and improve consumer spending. Based on this, the descriptive statistical method is applied to define the current state of China's real estate market and the level of improvement in consumption, and to define the standard for improving consumption in China. On the other hand, based on the spatial and spatial spillover points of view, we use spatial analysis framework combined with exploratory spatial data analysis and GIS to investigate spatial correlation between consumption structure and housing price, and accurately reflect the spatial clustering status of the index by drawing. Moran dispersion plot and Lisa cluster plot, then the spatial Darwinian model, are used to investigate the impact of real estate prices on the increase in occupant consumption from a macro perspective.

Which Residential Clusters of Walkability Affect Future Population from the Perspective of Real Estate Prices in the Osaka Metropolitan Area?

In Japan, where the population is declining and aging significantly, walkability has attracted attention as a way to improve residents’ lifestyles. Therefore, it is essential to identify the residential clusters where walkability improvement would contribute to the maintenance of the population in order to select urban areas for the implementation of walkable designs. This study aimed to identify the residential clusters in which walkability affects the future population from the perspective of real estate prices. The reason for focusing on real estate prices is that they are expected to be a confounding factor connecting walkability and the future population. The method we used was to analyze the structural equation modeling of the impact of walkability index, real estate prices, and future population change ratio. This analysis was based on the neighborhood association scale. This study clarified that effective residential clusters are the business center cluster and the sprawl cluster. In the business center cluster and the sprawl cluster, the price of apartments for sale is the real estate value, through which the walkability index positively impacts the future population change ratio. This means that it is expected to contribute to the maintenance of the future population through a combination of walkable designs and housing policies that encourage people to change their residence types to apartments for sale when rebuilding old building stock using the location optimization plan policy.

The Application of Spatial Autoregressive Models for Analyzing the Influence of Spatial Factors on Real Estate Prices and Values

The spatial distribution of real estate in specific geographic locations, real estate transactions, and the prices and values of properties are a highly complex spatial phenomena that should be analyzed with the use of multidimensional methods. Spatial factors are taken into account in the modeling process to increase the reliability of real estate market analyses, and spatial autoregressive models are applied to determine the effect of spatial factors on real estate prices and values. The present study relies on a review of the literature and the results of an experiment. The concept and principles of market analysis were designed with the use of spatial autoregressive models, and the influence of selected spatial factors on real estate prices was presented on maps. Analyses involving autoregressive models enable reliable modeling and support correct interpretation of the observed processes.

ON THE IMPACT OF REAL ESTATE PRICES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMY IN CHINA–AN ESTIMATION BASED ON PANEL QUANTILE REGRESSION MODEL

The paper analyzes the mechanism of real estate prices on economic development with panel quantile regression model. It is found that real estate prices can significantly promote economic development. Generally speaking, the contribution of real estate prices to economic development in regions with higher level of economic development is higher than that in regions with lower level. With the continuous improvement of the quantile, the impact of real estate prices has generally increased gradually, and the impact of urbanization level basically shows the law of diminishing marginal effect.

Non-mortgage loans in the Chinese residential real estate market

Purpose From January 2021, the potential flow of Chinese household non-mortgage loans, including business loans and short-term consumption loans to the residential real estate market, has attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities. This study aims to examine the effects of household non-mortgage loans on the Chinese residential real estate market. Design/methodology/approach Based on a monthly data set between July 2011 and December 2019, this study adopts a cointegration analysis. Findings This study finds that household non-mortgage loans do play a significant role in driving residential real estate prices in China. Originality/value While many studies have examined the Chinese real estate market and its linkage with the financial system and the economy, this study is the first of its kind in the academic literature that exclusively focusses on the role of non-mortgage loans in real estate prices, and makes an original contribution.

Spatio-Temporal Pollution Forecasting using Hybrid Networks

Rising real estate prices along with expensive maintenance costs, and lack of spares during times of instrument failure have become major issues for statutory bodies when dealing with real-time pollution monitoring stations. As a possible solution to these problems, a novel class of hybrid spatio-temporal pollution forecasting networks which are a combination of various widely used temporal forecasting methods and spatial interpolation methods have been proposed in this paper. In addition, a novel multi-site Multi Layer Perception based Ensemble method, capable of improving accuracy by taking exogenous variables into account, has also been proposed. Experimental results based on the multi-site air pollution data of Beijing demonstrate that the proposed class of hybrid networks have been effective in predicting the pollution of unknown locations with great levels of accuracy. Moreover, the proposed novel MLP Ensemble method for spatial interpolation has also been empirically shown to perform equivalently in comparison to commonly used spatial interpolation methods.

The perfect storm of personal consumption

The COVID-19 pandemic forced the governments of almost all countries to introduce lockdowns in 2020, which sharply reduced the supply in a number of large service sectors: transport, recreation, catering, tourism. The recession began without a crisis, and the unique supply of cheap money and fiscal incentives prevented the development of a “liquidity crunch”. On the contrary, it led to an increase in stock prices, real estate prices, and a reduction in bankruptcies. There was no drop in the value of pension and investment funds. The working population has faced a reduction in employment in labor-intensive service industries, a violation of traditional lifestyle models. The course of the recession in these conditions has changed the structure of personal consumption in developed countries, with its severe adaptation in medium-developed and less developed countries. The pandemic and the recession have caused an uneven compression of activity and consumption across social strata that leads to an increase in social disparities on exiting the recession. The drivers of the demand-side recovery in developed countries are the growth of investments in housing and durable goods, and developing countries are gradually restoring normal consumption of non-durable goods and exports.