Exchange rate market efficiency: further evidence from cointegration tests

1995 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 196-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Ukpolo
1996 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 83-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panayiotis F Diamandis ◽  
Dimitris A. Georgoutsos ◽  
Georgios.P Kouretas

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin ◽  
Khan Md. Raziuddin Taufique

This study seeks evidence supporting the existence of market efficiency and exchange rate sensitivity on stock prices in the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The sample includes the daily price indices of all securities listed on the JSE, and the exchange rate of the USD/Rand for the period since January 2000 to December 2004. The results from the unit root test, the ADF test and the causality test at the Granger sense provide evidence that the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) is informationally efficient. It has a long run comovement with exchange rate, and long run equilibrium or steady state. Hence, in JSE there is a strong possibility that foreign direct investors and forex market traders cannot influence and gain abnormal extra benefits by using exchange rate mechanism or by using exchange rate to forecast stock prices in the market. So, JSE is semi-strong form efficient. Through cointegration test, this paper gives more insight on the concept of market efficiency and the reliability of the results. These results are important to security analysts, investors, and security regulatory exchange bodies in policy making decision to improve the market conditions


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1093-1118
Author(s):  
Bhushan Praveen Jangam ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath

PurposeThe primary purpose of this study is to examine whether the classification of industries into the tradable and nontradable matters for the Balassa–Samuelson (BS) effect.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses annual data for 38 countries from 1995 to 2014. To examine whether the classification of industries matter, the study proceeds with two approaches, that is, “traditional” and “benchmark”.FindingsFirst, by applying panel cointegration tests of Pedroni and Westerlund, the results validate the BS hypothesis. However, the coefficients of long-run elasticities show appreciation of real exchange rate (RER) due to increase in productivity in the case of “traditional approach”, whereas depreciation of RER in the case of “benchmark approach”. Second, by applying the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger causality test, the results reveal the bi-directional causality among RER and productivity for both the approaches. Further, to provide more insights, the study employs a fixed-effects panel threshold model. The results indicate that increase in productivity leads to both appreciation and depreciation of RER depending on threshold regimes.Practical implicationsThe study ascertains that the evidence of BS effect depends on the choice of approach considered. However, irrespective of the classification, there exists a BS effect beyond a threshold.Originality/valueAlthough the BS effect is well established in the literature; there is no study examining the importance of classification of industries at a disaggregated level. Furthermore, there is no consideration of threshold effects.


2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osamah M. Al-Khazali ◽  
Guillaume Leduc ◽  
Chong Soo Pyun

1989 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence H. Officer

The article develops a model of gold-standard efficiency in the context of the theory of efficient asset markets. Efficiency is measured by the ratio of experienced disutility to the hypothetical loss under perfect gold arbitrage and neutral exchange-rate speculation. Dollar-sterling gold-point estimates for 1890 to 1906 are generated using the methodology of focusing on the dominant arbitrageurs, the prevailing exchange instrument, and the primary form of gold shipped. Gold- standard efficiency is remarkably high and only marginally below exchange- market efficiency from 1950 to 1966 under Bretton Woods.


2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450007 ◽  
Author(s):  
CAO GUANGXI ◽  
HAN YAN ◽  
CUI WEIJUN

Based on the daily return and volatility series of the Chinese yuan (RMB)/US dollar (USD) exchange rate and the Shanghai Stock Composite Index, the time-varying long memories of the Chinese currency and stock markets are investigated by comprehensively using the rescaled range (R/S), the modified R/S, and the detrended fluctuation analysis methods. According to the results drawn: (1) the efficiency of the Chinese currency market has not improved significantly, whereas the efficiency of the Chinese stock market has improved steadily, (2) volatility series presents longer memory than return series either in the Chinese currency or stock market and (3) the time-varying Hurst exponent of the Chinese currency market is sensitive to the reform that enhances the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. Moreover, we find that short-term bidirectional Granger causal relationship exists, but no long-run equilibrium relationship between the time-varying Hurst exponents of the Chinese currency and stock markets was found based on the Granger causality and cointegration tests, respectively.


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