A deep learning model for gas storage optimization

To the best of our knowledge, the application of deep learning in the field of quantitative risk management is still a relatively recent phenomenon. In this article, we utilize techniques inspired by reinforcement learning in order to optimize the operation plans of underground natural gas storage facilities. We provide a theoretical framework and assess the performance of the proposed method numerically in comparison to a state-of-the-art least-squares Monte-Carlo approach. Due to the inherent intricacy originating from the high-dimensional forward market as well as the numerous constraints and frictions, the optimization exercise can hardly be tackled by means of traditional techniques.

Do central counterparties reduce counterparty and liquidity risk? Empirical results

A central counterparty (CCP) interposes itself between buyers and sellers of financial contracts to extinguish their bilateral exposures. Therefore, central clearing and settlement through a CCP should affect how financial institutions engage in financial markets. Though, financial institutions’ interactions are difficult to observe and analyze. Based on a unique transactional dataset corresponding to the Colombian peso non-delivery forward market, this article compares—for the first time—networks of transactions agreed to be cleared and settled by the CCP with those to be cleared and settled bilaterally. Networks to be centrally cleared and settled show significantly higher connectivity and lower distances among financial institutions. This suggests that agreeing on central clearing and settlement reduces liquidity risk. After CCP interposition, exposure networks show significantly lower connectivity and higher distances, consistent with a reduction of counterparty risk. Consequently, evidence shows CCPs induce a change of behavior in financial institutions that emerges as two distinctive economic structures for the same market, which corresponds to CCP’s intended reduction of liquidity and counterparty risks.

Price discovery and market efficiency of cardamom in India

Purpose Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework. Design/methodology/approach This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. Findings The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract. Research limitations/implications These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market. Practical implications The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery. Originality/value This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.