Dynamic Linkages among Saudi Market Sectors Indices

This study aims to test the causal relationship between Saudi stock market index (TASI) and sectoral indices throughout the period from 2016–2020. The study data were extracted through the main index of the Saudi market and the indices of the available data of 19 sectors out of 21 sectors. The unit root test was used along with the Granger causality test, in addition to multiple regression tests in order to analyze the study hypotheses. The study shows that all index series were stationary at the zero level I (0), and the results also show that there were bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships between TASI and sectoral indices, and that TASI effectively mirrors all the changes that occur in the Saudi stock market.

COVID-19's Impact on China's Strategic Emerging Industries: An Observation of Policy Difficulties

The study investigates the influence of the COVID-19 on the rate of R&D investment and foreign exchange development of China's most important emerging industry firms. From 2010 to 2020, data were collected from 26 locations across China, focusing on seven different types of critical creating companies. To analyze the data, we have applied Fourier Increased Unit Root Test, Granger causality assessments test, Pattern Assessment test, Poisson pseudo most excellent probability (PPML) approach, Wald test, and Regression analysis test. The results of the tests reveal a clear underlying association among COVID-19 relates Chinese exports and imports. COVID-19's instant effects on imports and exports lack working capital have been calculated, but the short-term, medium-to-long-term products are composite and unidentified. The article result main results are following: (i) The COVID-19 impacts the R&D investment is main industries like as high-end equipment industry, new materials industry, and new-era data innovation. (ii) The COVID-19 highly affects the imports and exports development network of Chinese strategic emerging industries which emphasizes cross-industry grouping features. The study provides the guidance to the future researchers to focus on COVID-19 affects on the strategic emerging industries of developed and underdeveloped countries to determine of foreign direct investment inflow and unemployment growth rates.JEL: G20, O10, O40

Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

Causality Relationship between Import, Export and Exim Bank Loans: Turkish Economy

Export promotion tools aim to increase exports and support the entrepreneur in reaching new foreign markets. The positive impact of incentives, especially on financial issues, on exports both before and after shipment is undeniable. Founded in 1987, Turkish Exim bank is Turkey’s official export credit institution. By observing macro-economic balances, Exim bank ensures that exporters, export-oriented production manufacturers and entrepreneurs operating abroad are supported by credit, guarantee and insurance programs to increase their competitiveness. The study aims to examine the causal relationship between imports, exports and Exim bank loans in the Turkish economy. In the study, stationarity with the extended Dickey-Fuller unit root test, long-term relationship with the Johansen co-integration test, and then causality with the Granger test were investigated. The causality relationship was analyzed using import, export and Eximbank loans data for the periods 2003–2020.

COVID-19 OUTBREAK AND ROLE OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN

The current research aimed to find out the effect of tourism development on economic growth in Pakistan for the period (1995 to 2017) by using Canonical Regression Analysis (CCR) and Dynamic Least Square (DOLS) method. In addition, a unit root test is used to find out the static nature of the variables, and for the robust check, the authors utilize the Fully Modified Least Square (FMOLS) method. The results of the CCR and DOLS shows the key role of tourism development on growth, and FMOLS confirms these findings. In addition, the contribution of financial development is insignificant and positive. However, inflation harms economic growth, which depicts that the government of Pakistan will face severe challenges to achieve the targeted level of growth in future. In addition, an outbreak of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) is another challenge that will cause a significant decline in tourism receipts.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Pakistan

The study explored the link between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan covering the period from 1980 to 2018. This study used an augmented production function and combined the two neo-classical and ecological points. Most important is that this study used three different proxies of energy to check whether the relationship is proxy specific or not in Pakistan. Furthermore, there are some controls in terms of trade and foreign direct investment to check the robustness of the relationship. The time series approaches as augmented dickey fuller (ADF) unit root test and ARDL bound test approach has applied. The results indicated the long-run positive relationship between energy and growth in Pakistan and the relationship is not proxy specific. Therefore, it has suggested enhancing energy efficient policies, better resource allocation for energy supply.

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Economic Growth in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in Malaysia. The sample collected for this empirical study covered 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The secondary data was collected annually and a total of 30 observations were taken for each variable. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, unit root test, several diagnostic tests and Granger causality test were used in this research to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth. Eviews 11 was used to analyze the time series data throughout all the tests. The result showed that the inflows of FDI has a significant negative relationship with economic growth and there is no causal relationship between FDI and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Keywords: Economic growth, FDI inflows, Granger Causality Test, Ordinary Least Square regression, Unit Root Test

A Time Series Model on the Occurrence of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

Coronaviruses belong to a large family of viruses which affect the hepatic, gastrointestinal, neurological and respiratory systems. The increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed and deaths cases from different countries of the world has brought social, economic and political activities to a standstill, affecting individuals, government, public and private sectors. In this study, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model for modeling and forecasting daily confirmed, recovered, and deaths cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria was used with data on daily cases of confirmed, recovered and deaths due to COVID-19 in Nigeria from 27/02/2020-31/07/2020 obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) website. The data from 27/02/2020-16/07/2020 were used for model building while 15 observations from 17/07/2020-31/07/2020 were used for training and forecast evaluations. Time plots and Dickey-Fuller Generalized Least Squares unit root test were used to investigate the stationarity properties of the data. Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) in conjunction with log likelihood were used to search for optimal ARIMA models while Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was used for forecast evaluation. Results showed that all the study variables were differenced stationary and hence integrated of order one, I (1). ARIMA (2,1,4), ARIMA (2,1,2) and ARIMA (2,1,3) models were selected as the best candidates for modeling and forecasting the confirmed, recovered and deaths cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria respectively. The study found an approximate COVID-19 life cycle of 12 days among the infected population. The 15 days’ forecasts from ARIMA (2,1,4) and ARIMA (2,1,2) models showed increases in the daily number of confirmed and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The forecasts from ARIMA (2,1,3) model however showed fluctuating trend with decline in the number of deaths cases due to the disease. The result of the study further showed that improving on the present approach to treatment will further decrease the number of casualties due to COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Panel Dataset to Assess Proactive Eco-Innovation in the Paradigm of Firm Financial Progression

Recently, eco-innovation has received a lot of attention in the academic and corporate world due to its potential to accelerate firm financial progression. To measure eco-innovation, mostly primary data and a reactive approach were employed. By emphasising the proactive approach and utilising a secondary panel dataset, this study fills the existing research gap. Data presented in this paper comprise 31 energy firms from Bursa Malaysia for the years between 2015 and 2019. Panel data associated with eco-innovation proactiveness and firm financial progression were collected from three different sources such as company websites, annual reports, and sustainability reports using content analysis. For data collection, an index was adapted comprising five dimensions of eco-innovation, named as product, process, technology, organizational, and marketing. In addition to that, Tobin’s Q was considered as a proxy dimension for firm financial progression because it considers both market value as well as book value. Following a unit root test, six specific data diagnostic tests were performed to ensure data reliability and validity for future potential usage. The results reveal that the panel dataset was organised and is eligible for further statistical model analysis.

On Exports and Capital Formation in Nigeria

One remarkable importance of exports is that it enables countries generate the required foreign capital needed to drive sustainable growth and development. This is to say that export earnings are capable of increasing capital formation through real investment. This study therefore focused on the impact of exports to capital formation in Nigeria for a 40-year time period spanning from 1981 to 2020. Related works on the subject matter were reviewed. The unit root test showed that all the variables attained stationarity after first difference. The Johansen cointegration test result showed that there exists a stable long run relationship between gross fixed capital formation, oil export, non-oil export and exchange rate in the model. Using the ordinary least square (OLS) estimation technique in analyzing the data sourced, the results showed that oil export had a negative and insignificant impact on capital formation in Nigeria. Similarly, non-oil export and exchange rate exerted insignificant negative influences on capital formation in Nigeria for the period covered by the study. Based on the findings from the study, the following recommendations were made. First is that the proceeds from crude oil export should be used to acquire capital assets for investment which will in turn drive growth in the economy. Also the government through the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) and relevant agencies should pay more attention to the non-oil sector in terms of the implementation of favourable policies, grants and loans, tax incentives, research and development, etc. to improve the export of the sector, making it compete favourably in the international market. This is because crude oil is an exhaustible asset that is liable to depletion. Finally, efficient exchange rate policies should be implemented by government through the relevant authorities to protect the value of the naira while ensuring that the products are not too dare in the international market.