Using global variance-based sensitivity analysis to prioritise bridge retrofits in a regional road network subject to seismic hazard

Author(s):  
Gitanjali Bhattacharjee ◽  
Jack W. Baker
1991 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 796-817
Author(s):  
Nitzan Rabinowitz ◽  
David M. Steinberg

Abstract We propose a novel multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This approach allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a variety of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much richer picture than standard analyses, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. We illustrate our method with a sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Jerusalem. In this example, we find several input parameters whose importance depends critically on the settings of other input parameters. This phenomenon, which cannot be detected by a standard sensitivity analysis, is easily diagnosed by our method. The multi-parameter approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Velloso Gomes Batista ◽  
Peter Fiener ◽  
Simon Scheper ◽  
Christine Alewell

<p>Sediment connectivity is highly influenced by landscape patchiness. In particular, linear features such as roads, ditches, and terraces, modify landscape patterns and affect sediment transport from hillslopes to surface waters. Connectivity patterns are commonly assessed by spatially-distributed models, which rely on semi-qualitative indices or numerical simulations of soil erosion and sediment transport. However, model-based connectivity assessments are hindered by the uncertainty in model structure and parameter estimation. Moreover, representing linear landscape features is often limited by the spatial resolution of the model input data. Here we demonstrate how a global sensitivity analysis of the WaTEM/SEDEM model can be used to improve our understanding of sediment connectivity in patchy agricultural catchments of the Swiss Plateau. Specifically, we explored model structural connectivity assumptions regarding road drainage and the presence of edge-of-field buffer strips, as well as the uncertainty in the input data, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation and a high resolution 2 m x 2 m DEM. Our results showed that roads are the main regulators of sediment connectivity in ameliorated Swiss landscapes. That is, our sensitivity analysis revealed that assumptions about how the road network (dis)connects sediment transport from cropland to water courses had a much higher impact on modelled sediment loads than the uncertainty in model parameters. These results illustrate how a high-density road network combined with an effective drainage system increases sediment connectivity from arable land to surface waters in Switzerland. Additionally, our approach underlines the usefulness of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for identifying relevant processes in model-based sediment connectivity assessments.</p>


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