Evaluation of Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

This study assesses existing intensity prediction equations (IPEs) for small unspecified magnitude (M ≤3.5) earthquakes at short hypocentral distances (Dh) and explores such earthquakes’ contribution to the felt shaking hazard. In particular, we consider IPEs by Atkinson and Wald (2007) and Atkinson et al. (2014), and evaluate their performance based on “Did You Feel It” (DYFI) reports and recorded peak ground velocities (PGVs) in the central United States. Both IPEs were developed based on DYFI reports in the central and eastern United States with moment magnitudes above Mw 3.0. DYFI reports are often used as the ground truth when evaluating and developing IPEs, but they could be less reliable when there are limited responses for small-magnitude earthquakes. We first compare the DYFI reports with intensities interpolated from recorded PGVs. Results suggest a minimal discrepancy between the two when the intensity is large enough to be felt (i.e., M >2 and Dh<15 km). We then compare intensities from 31,617 DYFI reports of 3049 earthquakes with the two IPEs. Results suggest that both the IPEs match well with observed intensities for 2.0< M <3.0 and Dh<10 km, but the IPE by Atkinson et al. (2014) matches better for larger distances. We also observe that intensities from DYFI reports attenuate faster compared with the two IPEs, especially for distances greater than 10 km. We then group DYFI reports by inferred VS30 as a proxy for site amplification effects. We observe that intensities at sites with VS30 around 300 m/s are consistently higher than at sites with VS30 around 700 m/s and are also closer to the two IPEs. Finally, we conduct hazard disaggregation for earthquakes at close distances (Dh=7.5 km) using the observed records. Results suggest that earthquakes with magnitudes below M 3.0 contribute more than 40% to the occurrence of felt shaking.

Ground Response and Historical Buildings in Avellino (Campania, Southern Italy): Clues from a Retrospective View Concerning the 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata Earthquake

Cultural heritage represents our legacy with the past and our identity. However, to assure heritage can be passed on to future generations, it is required to put into the field knowledge as well as preventive and safeguard actions, especially for heritage located in seismic hazard-prone areas. With this in mind, the article deals with the analysis of ground response in the Avellino town (Campania, Southern Italy) and its correlation with the effects caused by the 23rd November 1980 Irpinia earthquake on the historical buildings. The aim is to get some clues about the earthquake damage cause-effect relationship. To estimate the ground motion response for Avellino, where strong-motion recordings are not available, we made use of the seismic hazard disaggregation. Then, we made extensive use of borehole data to build the lithological model so being able to assess the seismic ground response. Overall, results indicate that the complex subsoil layers influence the ground motion, particularly in the lowest period (0.1–0.5 s). The comparison with the observed damage of the selected historical buildings and the maximum acceleration expected indicates that the damage distribution cannot be explained by the surface geology effects alone.

Hazard Disaggregation and Record Selection for Fragility Analysis and Earthquake Loss Estimation

Economic losses and collapse probability are critical measures for evaluating the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this context, this study sheds light on several problems and limitations in current practice of hazard-consistent ground-motion selection and fragility analysis, focusing on the impact that (commonly assumed) approximations in disaggregation outputs have on the aforementioned risk metrics, as opposed to an exact solution. These issues are investigated for several building classes, seismicity models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), for a site in the city of Lisbon (Portugal). It is observed that only an exact (i.e., rupture-by-rupture) disaggregation can lead to satisfactory results in terms of accuracy, when limit state criteria are not structure-specific. On the other hand, an approximate method is proposed, which still leads to statistically valid results regardless of the chosen structural class, seismicity model or GMPE.

Preliminary engineering analysis of the August 24th 2016, ML 6.0 central Italy earthquake records

An earthquake of estimated local magnitude (ML) 6.0 struck central Italy on the 24th of August (01:36:32 UTC) in the vicinity of Accumoli (close to Rieti, central Italy) initiating a long-lasting seismic sequence that also featured events of larger magnitude within a few months. The earthquake caused widespread building damage and around three-hundred fatalities. Ground motion was recorded by hundreds of seis-mic stations. This work uses accelerometric records for a preliminary discussion, from the earthquake en-gineering perspective, of strong motion caused by the earthquake. Peak and integral ground motion inten-sity measures, are presented. The response spectra at some select stations are analysed with respect to the code-mandated design actions for various return periods at the recording sites. Hazard disaggregation for different return periods is discussed referring to the site of the epicentre of the earthquake. Finally, some preliminary considerations are made concerning the impact of rupture propagation on near-source ground motion; i.e., the records are scanned for traces of pulse-like forward-directivity effects.